虚拟货币市场遭血洗:40万人爆仓 千亿大佬财富蒸发90%

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虚拟货币市场崩了!5月12日,虚拟货币市场上演超级大风暴!一度被币圈玩家称为“币圈茅台”的LUNA币狂泻逾99%,这一最高曾达119.5美元的加密货币,最新价已不足3美分,数百亿美元财富几近归零。与此同时,数十只有成交量的虚拟货币跌幅达到或超过90%。比特币和以太坊等主流加密货币同样暴跌,跌幅一度达到10%和20%以上。

根据彭博亿万富翁指数,Coinbase创始人布莱恩•阿姆斯特朗财富已经蒸发约83%,降至23亿美元。币安首席执行官赵长鹏个人财富由960亿美元缩减至116亿美元,蒸发幅度近90%。由于此前特斯拉已经公告购买了比特币,且成本大约在3.2万美元左右,若该公司仍持有这一货币,可能损失已经接近2亿美元。

值得一提的是,5月12日可以算得上是一个“黑色星期四”,除了虚拟货币之外,大宗商品几乎全线杀跌。那么,对A股又会有何影响?

大屠杀日

5月12日,LUNA币从6美元左右价格持续暴跌,最低时价格不足3美分,只有0.0255美元,跌幅高达99.37%。这种跌幅完全可以用“血崩”来形容。

虚拟货币市场遭血洗:40万人爆仓 千亿大佬财富蒸发90%

其实,还不止这只虚拟货币出现如此巨大跌幅,5月12日当天有数十只虚拟货币跌幅巨大。

虚拟货币市场遭血洗:40万人爆仓 千亿大佬财富蒸发90%

市值比较靠前的比特币和以太币跌幅分别一度超过10%和20%,后有所回稳。此前被马斯克带货的狗狗币更是暴跌近25%。

虚拟货币市场遭血洗:40万人爆仓 千亿大佬财富蒸发90%

从数据来看,过去24小时,共有将近40万人爆仓,最大单笔爆仓达1000万美元。

虚拟货币市场遭血洗:40万人爆仓 千亿大佬财富蒸发90%

随着虚拟货币杀跌,据财通社援引欧科云链旗下链上大师数据显示,截至目前包括灰度投资在内共有43家公司或机构持有122.56万枚比特币。包括特斯拉在内的机构和公司持有的比特币共蒸发130亿美元以上。其中AKer ASA亏损2162万美元,美图亏损1975万美元、Plunwra亏损1695万美元位列前三。另外,特斯拉持有4.09万枚比特币,持币均价为3.2万美元。

同时,投资大佬的身价也因此近期大跌缩水。根据彭博亿万富翁指数,Coinbase创始人布莱恩•阿姆斯特朗(Brian Armstrong)去年11月的个人财富为137亿美元,而截至目前,其财富已经蒸发约83%,降至23亿美元。

币安首席执行官赵长鹏(Changpeng Zhao)遭受的损失比阿姆斯特朗更大,1月份的彭博亿万富翁指数显示,赵长鹏的个人财富为960亿美元,截至5月11日,这一数字已缩减至116亿美元,蒸发幅度近90%。

发生了什么?

据外媒报道,虚拟货币崩盘,很大一部分责任归咎于一种名为 TerraUSD 的虚拟货币。

TerraUSD 是最大的所谓“稳定币”之一,这意味着它应该保持接近法定货币(在这种情况下为美元)的价值。虚拟货币投资者将稳定币视为加密游戏中的一种检查点,当他们不购买波动性更大的货币时,可以“安全”地存储他们的投资。然而,本周 TerraUSD 的价值跌至 30 美分的最低点,但TerraUSD “通常波动只有千分之几”。

与其他一些稳定币不同,TerraUSD 与虚拟货币挂钩,而不是直接与它应该保持平价的法定货币挂钩。TerraUSD与 Luna 挂钩,Luna 建立在同一个区块链上。TerraUSD 和 Luna 的储备是通过算法创建和销毁以保持其相对价值,在任一方向上的反弹不到一美分,使它们值得买卖——它们之间的交易也有助于稳定价值。

直到本周,当 Luna 的价值下跌超过 75% 时,TerraUSD 的价值也随之拉低。此时,TerraUSD 的创建者 Do Kwon 打开了他的储备金,他购买了价值 35 亿美元的比特币来支撑 TerraUSD,并在已经动荡的虚拟货币市场上掀起了一股冲击波。

分析人士认为,从根本的原因来看,可能还是与美元指数最近持续走高,美元流通性趋于紧缩有关。由于美联储加息和缩表,股票市场最近持续大跌。而整个市场的结构性品种比较丰富且复杂,一些投资人可能使用虚拟货币作为抵押物,或者在其投资组合里配置了虚拟货币。随着股市杀跌,虚拟货币存在被突然抛售的可能。

大宗商品杀跌如何影响A股

值得一提的是,不止是虚拟货币,大宗商品亦全线杀跌。5月12日欧洲时段,LME锡跌幅一度超过10%,创去年9月来低位。

虚拟货币市场遭血洗:40万人爆仓 千亿大佬财富蒸发90%

与此同时,美元指数持续走高,5月12日已经涨至104.6以上水平。

虚拟货币市场遭血洗:40万人爆仓 千亿大佬财富蒸发90%

那么,这将如何演绎到A股市场呢?这可能还要从美债说起。最近市场出现了一个比较奇怪的现象,虽然美元上涨,但随着大宗商品全线杀跌,美债出现在了大幅反弹,对应的美债收益率大幅杀跌。

虚拟货币市场遭血洗:40万人爆仓 千亿大佬财富蒸发90%

分析人士认为,如果要寻找A股的支撑方向,则非美债莫属。

首先,美债收益率前期持续高涨,并与中国国债收益率形成罕见倒挂。这在某种程度上会对中国的货币政策带来一定的掣肘。而随着美债收益率回调,两者倒挂已经持续收窄。

其次,从美债收益率与A股成长股的相关性来看,有着较高的负相关性。也就是说,美债收益率上升期,A股成长股估值经常会受到压抑;反之,则有助于成长股估值提升。因此,随着美债收益率回落,可能会有利于A股成长股演绎。

第三,也要注意到一点,此次美债收益率回落可能有两个预期:一是通胀见顶,二是避险。从全球供应链地位的角度来看,通胀见顶、大宗商品杀跌非常有利于降低中国制造业的成本,从而有利于以制造业为主的成长股的估值提升。不过,若是资金出于避险需要而杀进国债市场,则可能会在情绪上影响成长股的演绎。

Brian Armstrong, founder of Coinbase, has lost about 83% of his wealth to $2.3 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. Zhao Changpeng, chief executive of Yuan'an, lost nearly 90 per cent of his personal wealth from US $96 billion to US $11.6 billion. Since Tesla had previously announced that he had bought Bitcoin at a cost of about $32000, the company could have lost nearly $200m if it still held the currency.

It is worth mentioning that May 12 can be regarded as a "Black Thursday", with commodities falling almost everywhere except virtual currencies. So, what will be the impact on A-shares?

Holocaust Day

On May 12th, the price of the Luna continued to plummet from around $6, with a low price of less than 3 cents to $0.0255, a drop of 99.37%. This decline can be described as "blood avalanche".

In fact, it is not just this virtual currency that has fallen so much. Dozens of virtual currencies fell sharply on May 12.

At one point, the market capitalization of bitcoin and ethercoin fell by more than 10% and 20%, respectively, and then stabilized. The dog coins previously carried by Musk plummeted by nearly 25%.

According to the data, a total of nearly 400000 people have exploded in the past 24 hours, with the largest single explosion reaching $10 million.

As the virtual currency has plummeted, 43 companies or institutions, including grayscale investments, have held 1.2256 million bitcoins so far, according to data from Okeyun chain Masters, quoted by the Caihui news agency. Institutions and companies, including Tesla, have lost more than $13 billion in bitcoin holdings. Among them, AKer ASA lost $21.62 million, Meitu lost $19.75 million and Plunwra lost $16.95 million. In addition, Tesla holds 40900 bitcoins, with an average price of $32000.

At the same time, the value of investment bosses has also plummeted recently. Coinbase founder Brian Armstrong (Brian Armstrong), who had a personal fortune of $13.7 billion in November, has lost about 83% of his wealth to $2.3 billion so far, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

Zhao Changpeng, chief executive of Yuan'an, suffered more losses than Armstrong. In January, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, Zhao Changpeng's personal wealth was $96 billion. As of May 11, that figure had shrunk to $11.6 billion, a loss of nearly 90 per cent.

What happened?

According to foreign media reports, a large part of the blame for the collapse of the virtual currency lies in a virtual currency called TerraUSD.

The TerraUSD is one of the largest so-called "stable currencies", which means it should remain close to the value of legal tender (in this case, the dollar). Virtual currency investors see stable currencies as a checkpoint in encryption games, where they can store their investments "safely" when they do not buy more volatile currencies. However, the value of the TerraUSD fell to a low of 30 cents this week, but the TerraUSD "usually fluctuates by only a few thousandths".

Unlike some other stable currencies, TerraUSD is pegged to virtual currencies, rather than directly to legal tender, where it is supposed to be parity. TerraUSD is linked to Luna, and Luna is built on the same block chain. TerraUSD and Luna's reserves are algorithmically created and destroyed to maintain their relative value, rebounding less than a penny in either direction, making them worth buying and selling-and trading between them also helps stabilize value.

Until this week, when the value of Luna fell by more than 75 per cent, so did the value of TerraUSD. At this point, Do Kwon, the founder of TerraUSD, opened his reserves, bought $3.5 billion worth of bitcoins to support TerraUSD, and sent shockwaves through the already volatile virtual currency market.

Analysts believe that from the root cause, it may still be related to the recent continuous rise in the dollar index and the tightening of dollar liquidity. The stock market has continued to tumble recently as a result of the Fed's interest rate hikes and shrinking schedules. The structural variety of the whole market is relatively rich and complex, some investors may use virtual currency as collateral, or allocate virtual currency in their portfolio. As the stock market falls, there is the possibility of a sudden sell-off of virtual currencies.

How does the fall of commodities affect A-shares

It is worth mentioning that not only virtual currencies, but also commodities have fallen across the board. LME tin fell more than 10% at one point in European trading on may 12, the lowest since September last year.

Meanwhile, the dollar index continued to rise, rising above 104.6 on May 12.

So, how will this be interpreted into the A-share market? This may start with US debt. Recently, there has been a strange phenomenon in the market. although the dollar has risen, as commodities have fallen across the board, US debt has rebounded sharply, and corresponding US bond yields have fallen sharply.

Analysts believe that if you want to look for the supporting direction of A-shares, it must be US debt.

First of all, US bond yields continued to rise in the early period, and formed a rare upside-down with Chinese Treasury yields. To some extent, this will impose some constraints on China's monetary policy. As Treasury yields pull back, the upside-down has continued to narrow.

Secondly, from the correlation between US debt yield and A-share growth stocks, there is a high negative correlation. In other words, when US bond yields rise, the valuations of A-share growth stocks are often suppressed; otherwise, it helps to improve the valuations of growth stocks. Therefore, as US bond yields fall, it may be conducive to the interpretation of A-share growth stocks.

Third, it should also be noted that there may be two expectations for the fall in US bond yields: inflation peaking and risk aversion. From the perspective of the status of the global supply chain, the peak of inflation and the fall in commodities are very helpful to reduce the cost of Chinese manufacturing, which is conducive to higher valuations of growth stocks dominated by manufacturing. However, if funds enter the government bond market out of risk aversion, it may affect the interpretation of growth stocks emotionally.

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版权声明:券商中国 发表于 2022-05-13 09:23。
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