全球气温很快超《巴黎协定》限值?WMO:未来5年升高可能性为50%

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根据世界气象组织(WMO)当地时间9日晚发布的最新气候通报,未来5年全球年平均气温较工业化前水平升高1.5摄氏度的可能性为50%,而且这一概率将随着时间推移而增加。路透社称,值得注意的是,2016年签署的联合国气候变化《巴黎协定》指出,国际社会应在本世纪内把全球平均气温较工业化前水平升高幅度控制在2摄氏度之内,同时努力将升温幅度控制在1.5摄氏度之内。

也就是说,世界气象组织认为,根本不需要等到本世纪末,人类在2026年前就有可能面临全球气温比工业化时代前升高1.5摄氏度的限值。

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尽管目前预测全球气温升高仅有50%的概率超过1.5摄氏度,但专家认为近年来这一预测概率一直在提升,2020年预测仅有20%,去年修正为40%,今年则为50%。而全球升温1.5摄氏度将带来可怕的影响。据联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会称,全球升温1.5摄氏度将对自然和人类系统造成巨大破坏,比如气候变暖会导致海平面上升,极端天气情况增加,严重威胁人类和地球生命。

世界气象组织秘书长彼得里·塔拉斯表示:“这项研究表明,我们正明显接近达到《巴黎协定》设定的(温控)较低限值目标的境地。1.5摄氏度这个数字并不是随机的统计数字,它更像是一个指标,表明气候影响将给人类乃至整个地球造成越来越大的危害。”

塔拉斯说:“只要我们继续排放温室气体,全球温度就会持续上升。同时,海洋将继续变暖和酸化,海冰和冰川将继续融化,海平面会继续上升,极端天气将更加频发。北极的升温程度超出了正常比例,在北极出现的变化将影响我们每个人。”

目前全球的平均气温较工业化之前已上升约1.1摄氏度。路透社称,就当前人类活动和气候政策而言,本世纪末全球气温可能较工业化时代前升高3.2摄氏度。世界气象组织气候预测与适应部主任迪利表示:“与气候变化相关或因气候变化而加剧的损失和损害已经发生,其中一些在可预见的未来是不可逆转的。”

与世界气象组织合作预测的英国气象中心表示,2016年和2020年是有史以来全球最热的年份,而该中心的研究认为,2022年-2026会有突破全球气温新高的年份出现。2022年至2026年的全球气温平均值高于过去5年的概率高达93%。英国气象中心研究员赫曼森说:“这令人非常担忧,这表明我们继续使地球变暖,我们正在接近巴黎协议中设定的第一个门槛。我们应尽可能地减少化石燃料使用。”

In other words, the World Meteorological Organization believes that it is not necessary to wait until the end of the century, and mankind is likely to face a limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than before the pre-industrial era before 2026.

Although there is currently only a 50% chance of a global temperature rise of more than 1.5 degrees Celsius, experts believe that the probability has been rising in recent years, with only 20% in 2020, 40% last year and 50% this year. And the global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius will have a terrible impact. According to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change, a global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius will cause great damage to natural and human systems, such as rising sea levels and increasing extreme weather conditions, posing a serious threat to human beings and life on Earth.

Petri Tlass, secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization, said: "this study shows that we are clearly close to achieving the lower [temperature control] target set by the Paris Agreement. The figure of 1.5 degrees Celsius is not a random statistic, it is more like an indicator that climate impacts will cause more and more harm to human beings and the planet as a whole. "

"as long as we continue to emit greenhouse gases, global temperatures will continue to rise," Tlass said. At the same time, the oceans will continue to warm and acidify, sea ice and glaciers will continue to melt, sea levels will continue to rise, and extreme weather will be more frequent. The Arctic is warming more than normal, and the changes that occur in the Arctic will affect all of us. "

At present, the average global temperature has risen by about 1.1 degrees Celsius compared with that before industrialization. In terms of current human activities and climate policies, global temperatures are likely to rise by 3.2 degrees Celsius by the end of the century than they were before industrialization, Reuters said. Dilly, director of climate forecasting and adaptation at the World Meteorological Organization, said: "losses and damage related to or exacerbated by climate change have occurred, some of which are irreversible in the foreseeable future."

The British Meteorological Centre, which works with the World Meteorological Organization, said 2016 and 2020 were the hottest years on record, while the centre's research suggests that there will be years between 2022 and 2026 that will break through new global highs. There is a 93% chance that the average global temperature from 2022 to 2026 will be higher than that of the past five years. Hermanson, a researcher at the British Meteorological Centre, said: "this is very worrying and shows that we continue to warm the planet and we are approaching the first threshold set in the Paris agreement." We should reduce the use of fossil fuels as much as possible. "

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