近两年，面对外部环境的变化，任正非一如既往地保持着未雨绸缪的管理理念，在这篇内部文章中，他直言接下来华为需要“把活下来作为最主要纲领，边缘业务全线收缩和关闭，把寒气传递给每个人。”
华为的“寒冬论”每隔几年就要提一次，其初心自然是为集团上下塑造危机意识，但在今年全球经济萎靡的背景下，任正非不再着力描写“寒冬”是如何产生的，而是直接给出了应变的策略：缩小战线，集中兵力打歼灭战。
六年前，任正非曾在接受新华社采访时表示，“我们做世界上最难的、最不赚钱的东西，因为人们不愿意做。”
现如今，他试图给华为谋划出最赚钱的未来。
再提“活下来”，有什么不同？
“活下来”用在华为身上似乎并没有什么说服力，这家通信巨头具备的技术底蕴和战略定力是行业内绝大多数公司难以望其项背的，但这三个字却是贯穿华为过去两年的主要目标。
2020年年初，在芯片断供的消息不胫而走的情况下，华为轮值董事长徐直军表示，华为要“力争在2020年活下来，争取明年还能发表年报”。这一年华为终端业务的核心工作只有一个，即“抓紧一切时间备货”。
在麒麟9000这款“绝版芯片”的感召下，其手机在国内高端市场的占比甚至一度与苹果齐平。与此同时，在年初的巴塞罗那电子消费展上，华为一改常态，着力展示“1+8+N”战略的布局，并在随后的一年里，逐渐聚焦于可穿戴设备、智能家居设备、IoT生态三条赛道。
尽管华为从未披露过相关业务的详细营收情况，但结合市场表现来看，在华为2021年全球手机出货量暴跌82%的情况下，其消费者业务仍能维持2434亿元的营收规模，匆忙上马的华为生态链可谓功不可没。
直到2021年末，华为屡次提到的“活下去”可能也只是在发挥着警醒的作用。因为在这一年，华为的研发投入创下了历史之最的1427亿元，相当于该年度营收22.4%，这一比例在全球科技巨头中仅低于Alphabet。
此时的华为，并不像是其自诩的“艰难求生”，倒像是在“闭门修炼”。
但今年上半年，全球经济衰退让华为感受到的不只是来自供应链的压力，更沉重的是来自市场的压力。“现在由于战争的影响以及美国继续封锁打压的原因，全世界的经济在未来3到5年内都不可能转好，加上疫情影响，全球应该没有一个地区是亮点。”此番论调尽管听起来有些悲观，但也基本是行业内的共识。
在这样的背景下，任正非提出的第一项要求就是开源节流，“2023年预算要保持合理节奏，盲目扩张，盲目投资的业务要收缩或关闭。”尽管任正非曾多次强调华为绝不是一家“多元化经营公司”，但此前围绕核心业务的延申已基本触及到互联网和通信行业的各个角落。
比如近两年被元宇宙概念带火的XR（包含VR、AR、MR等）显示设备，表面上看华为似乎没有多大兴趣，但需要注意的是，此前由于手机业务受阻转进VR头显的黑鲨，其创始人和团队核心成员正是出自于华为实验室。
实际上，华为算是业内最早关注XR赛道的公司之一，只不过在2019年发布一款VR Glass后就没了下文。也许VR头显只是华为消费者业务的一次尝试，但这样的探索未来几年可能会越来越少。
按照任正非的推论，华为的生命喘息期在2023年和2024年，“这两年我们能不能突围，现在还不敢肯定，所以每个口都不要再讲故事，一定要讲实现，尤其在进行业务预判时，不要再抱幻想，讲故事骗公司。”
如果说彼时的华为需要不断地增加研发投入去夯实自身在行业内的技术优势，那么今时今日的华为在面对来自消费市场的压力时，则不得不通过“做减法”来保证“活下来”这个前提能够被满足。
是时候谈钱了
“未来几年内不能产生价值和利润的业务应该缩减或关闭，把人力物力集中到主航道来，我们要面对现实，不要有太遥远太伟大的理想，快刀斩乱麻。”
在这段表述中，任正非着重提到了汽车业务，“智能汽车解决方案不能铺开一个完整战线，要减少科研预算，加强商业闭环，研发要走模块化的道路，聚焦在几个关键部件作出竞争力，剩余部分可以与别人连接。”
过去两年，关于华为造车的传闻不断，目前华为官方的口径是，旗下汽车业务将采取三种模式：标准化的零部件模式，HI模式（Huawei Inside模式），以及智选车模式。
余承东曾明确表示，华为汽车业务最大的投入是智能驾驶辅助，但也有部分观点认为，智选车模式催生出的问界系列车型，与华为自主造车之间只差“一层窗户纸”。
不过，就任正非的表态来看，2-3年内华为还是不会把这层窗户纸捅破。
尽管汽车业务长期处于亏损，完全符合任正非的“缩减标准”，但考虑到其较长的研发周期，以及“终端业务未来增长曲线”的属性，因此也不好判断华为会在多大规模上削减这一业务。更重要的是，智能汽车解决方案作为华为ICT基础设施的一部分，在产品规模化落地后，有望弥补终端业务因制裁而受到的损失。
至于终端业务，任正非认为它仍将是华为崛起突破的基础。只不过，眼下终端业务所能挖掘的潜力极为有限。
一方面，美国的多轮制裁涉及的范围越来越大，在2020年9月芯片断供后，华为曾提出了“南泥湾”项目，旨在绕开美国的制裁范围，重点发展智慧屏、笔电等类项，但在去年发布的Matebook 16机型上，却出现了“主板空有显卡槽”的情况，足以证明在关键元器件上，华为仍受到来自产业链的掣肘。
另一方面，电子消费市场完全看不到“触底反弹”的迹象。以智能手机为例，IDC公布的手机季度跟踪报告显示，今年第二季度，中国智能手机市场出货量约6720万台，同比下降14.7%。而来自供应链的消息表明，截至目前，行业内大部分厂商砍单去库存的情况仍未得到改善。
当然，华为也在电子消费品市场中积极谋求转变。一个直接的信号是，在今年4月，华为将消费者业务更名为终端业务，这意味着华为终端已经不再局限于C端市场，还会面向政企等多领域客户。
与此同时，华为还在大力推动“军团化运作”的组织变革，以实现在B端垂直领域内商业模式的探索与建立。虽然“军团化运作”的成效究竟如何尚未得到证实，但一位从事感知设备的华为供应商向虎嗅表示，“至少对接的业务线上信息能够互通了。”
无论是去年开始的改革，还是如今任正非的发文，都给人以“简单粗暴”的感觉。政企业务流程冗长，那就成立垂直部门，边缘业务无法创造利润，那就优化削减。这似乎与过去那个畅想未来的华为大相径庭，但也侧面证实了任正非的这次重提“寒冬论”并非是在杞人忧天。
实际上，他本人的回答要更为直接：“我们以前怀抱全球化理想，立志为全人类服务，现在我们的理想是什么？活下来，哪里有钱就在哪里赚一点。”
In the past two years, in the face of changes in the external environment, Ren Zhengfei has, as always, maintained the management concept of being prepared in advance. in this internal article, he said bluntly that he came to China next for the need to "take survival as the main program." the marginal business shrinks and shuts down, passing on the cold to everyone. "
Huawei's "Cold Winter Theory" is mentioned every few years, and its original intention is to create a sense of crisis for the whole group, but in the context of this year's global economic malaise, Ren Zhengfei no longer focuses on describing how the "cold winter" came into being. instead, he directly gave the contingency strategy: reducing the battle line and concentrating his forces to fight a war of annihilation.
"We do the hardest and least profitable thing in the world because people don't want to do it," Ren Zhengfei said in an interview with Xinhua six years ago. "
Now, he is trying to map out the most profitable future for Huawei.
When it comes to "survive", what's the difference?
"Survival" does not seem to be convincing for Huawei. The communications giant has a technological know-how and strategic focus that is beyond the reach of most companies in the industry, but these three words have been Huawei's main goal over the past two years.
In early 2020, as news of the chip outage spread, Xu Zhijun, Huawei's rotating chairman, said Huawei would "strive to survive in 2020 and publish an annual report next year". There is only one core job of Huawei's terminal business this year, that is, "seize all time to stock up".
Inspired by Kirin 9000, the "out-of-print chip", its mobile phone's share in the domestic high-end market was even on a par with Apple's. At the same time, at the Consumer Electronics Show in Barcelona at the beginning of the year, Huawei changed its routine and focused on the layout of the "1x 8N" strategy, and in the following year, it gradually focused on wearable devices, smart home devices and IoT ecology.
Although Huawei has never disclosed details of its revenue, combined with market performance, its consumer business has been able to maintain revenue of 243.4 billion yuan despite an 82 per cent drop in global mobile phone shipments in 2021. Huawei's ecological chain was launched in a hurry.
Until the end of 2021, Huawei's repeated reference to "living" may only be playing a cautionary role. Because in this year, Huawei's R & D investment reached an all-time high of 142.7 billion yuan, equivalent to 22.4% of the year's revenue, which is only lower than Alphabet among the global technology giants.
At this time, Huawei is not like its self-proclaimed "difficult survival", but rather "practicing behind closed doors".
But in the first half of this year, the global recession put Huawei under pressure not only from the supply chain, but also from the market. "now, due to the impact of the war and the continued blockade and crackdown by the United States, the world economy is unlikely to improve in the next three to five years. With the impact of the epidemic, no region in the world should be a bright spot." While this argument sounds pessimistic, it is basically a consensus in the industry.
In this context, the first requirement put forward by Ren Zhengfei is to increase revenue and reduce expenditure. "in 2023, the budget should maintain a reasonable pace, expand blindly, and businesses with blind investment should shrink or close." Although Ren Zhengfei has repeatedly stressed that Huawei is by no means a "diversified company", the extension of its core business has touched almost every corner of the Internet and communications industries.
For example, the XR (including VR, AR, MR, etc.) display devices that have been caught fire by the meta-universe concept in the past two years, Huawei does not seem to have much interest on the surface, but it should be noted that the founder and core members of the team are from Huawei Lab because the mobile phone business has been blocked and transferred to the black shark in VR.
In fact, Huawei is one of the first companies in the industry to follow the XR track, but it hasn't been around since the launch of a VR Glass in 2019. Maybe VR Touxian is just an attempt at Huawei's consumer business, but such exploration is likely to be less and less in the coming years.
According to Ren Zhengfei's inference, Huawei's life respite period is in 2023 and 2024. "We are not sure whether we can break through in these two years, so everyone should stop telling stories, and we must talk about realization." especially when making business predictions, don't have illusions and tell stories to deceive the company. "
If Huawei at that time needed to continuously increase its R & D investment to consolidate its technological advantage in the industry, then today's Huawei has to make "subtraction" to ensure that the premise of "survival" can be satisfied when it is under pressure from the consumer market.
It's time to talk about money.
"businesses that cannot generate value and profits in the next few years should be scaled back or closed, and manpower and material resources should be concentrated on the main waterway, so that we have to face reality and not have too distant and great ideals to cut through the chaos quickly."
In this statement, Ren Zhengfei highlighted the automotive business: "the smart car solution cannot open a complete front, it is necessary to reduce the research budget, strengthen the commercial closed loop, and take a modular approach to research and development." the focus is on several key components to be competitive, and the rest can be connected to others. "
There have been a lot of rumors about Huawei building cars over the past two years, and Huawei's official message is that its car business will adopt three models: the standardized parts model, the HI model (Huawei Inside model), and the smart car model.
Yu Chengdong has made it clear that the biggest investment in Huawei's car business is intelligent driving assistance, but there is also a view that there is only a layer of window paper between the boundary series models spawned by the smart car model and Huawei's own cars.
However, according to the position of Zhengfei, Huawei will not pierce this layer of window paper in 2-3 years.
Although the auto business has been losing money for a long time and is fully in line with Ren Zhengfei's "reduction criteria", given its long research and development cycle and the nature of the "terminal business future growth curve", it is also difficult to judge how large Huawei will cut the business. More importantly, the smart car solution, as part of Huawei's ICT infrastructure, is expected to make up for the loss of terminal business due to sanctions after the product is launched on a large scale.
As for the terminal business, Ren Zhengfei believes that it will still be the basis for Huawei's rise and breakthrough. However, at present, the potential that the terminal business can tap is very limited.
On the one hand, the scope of multiple rounds of sanctions in the United States is getting wider and wider. After the supply of chips was cut off in September 2020, Huawei proposed the "Nanniwan" project, which aims to bypass the scope of US sanctions and focus on developing smart screens, laptops and other items. However, on the Matebook 16 model released last year, there are "empty graphics card slots on the motherboard", which is enough to prove that Huawei is still constrained by the industrial chain in terms of key components.
On the other hand, there is no sign of a "bottoming out" in the consumer electronics market. Take smartphones as an example. According to the quarterly tracking report released by IDC, the Chinese smartphone market shipped about 67.2 million units in the second quarter of this year, down 14.7% from a year earlier. The news from the supply chain shows that so far, the situation of most manufacturers in the industry cutting orders to remove inventory has not been improved.
Of course, Huawei is also actively seeking changes in the consumer electronics market. A direct sign is that in April, Huawei renamed its consumer business to terminal business, which means that Huawei's terminals are no longer limited to the C-end market, but also to customers in a variety of areas, such as government and enterprises.
At the same time, Huawei is also vigorously promoting the organizational change of "regiment operation" in order to explore and establish a business model in the B-end vertical field. Although the effectiveness of the "regiment operation" has not been confirmed, a Huawei supplier engaged in sensing equipment told Hu that "at least the online information of the docking business can be exchanged."
Both the reforms that began last year and Ren Zhengfei's articles now give people an impression of "simplicity and rudeness." Government and enterprise business process is lengthy, then set up vertical departments, marginal business can not generate profits, then optimize the reduction. This seems to be very different from Huawei, which imagined the future in the past, but it also confirms that Ren Zhengfei's re-mention of the "cold winter theory" is not unfounded.
In fact, his own answer is more direct: "We used to embrace the ideal of globalization and are determined to serve all mankind, but what is our ideal now?" If you survive, you can earn some money wherever there is money. "
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