奈飞与微软合作，终极目标是“卖身”？

在所有选项中，微软是最理想的归宿？近日，全球流媒体巨头奈飞宣布将推出含有广告的订阅模式，但在寻找合作伙伴时拒绝了广告巨头谷歌，意外选择了经验不足的微软。分析师认为此次广告合作并没有看起来的那样简单。

投资机构Needham高级分析师Laura Martin周四对媒体表示：“奈飞可能正在寻找退出的机会，”并暗示奈飞或许正在为未来被微软收购做长期准备。

“奈飞正试图接近微软，希望微软在消化其收购的动视暴雪之后，会转而收购奈飞。”

据Martin解释称，在奈飞可以选择的其他合作伙伴中，没有公司有能力进行这项价值1000亿美元的收购交易，要么是资金不足，要么会受到监管限制。

截至隔夜美股收盘，奈飞的市值约为800亿美元。

为何选择经验不足的微软？

微软在第三方广告方面经验不足，而Google和NBC环球母公司康卡斯特在该领域的经验更加丰富，业界原本以为奈飞会在后两家公司之间做出选择。但是，奈飞最后出乎意料地选择了微软，这也是令Martin怀疑这项合作真实意图的主要原因。

奈飞对外宣称，选择微软是因为微软在技术和销售方面富有创新性和灵活性，且能够为用户提供强大的隐私保护。

微软在去年AT&T手中收购了广告平台Xandr，据悉Xandr的技术是微软广告产品的战略补充，可以使微软加快其数字广告和零售媒体解决方案的交付。

在Martin看来，微软将需要构建一项重要的技术，以满足奈飞的业务需要，但这会导致奈飞推迟原定于年底推出广告订阅的计划。

Martin预测，现在这项服务很可能要到2023年第三季度才能亮相。但投资人并不像看到这样的结果，他们希望广告能快速带来收入。

奈飞处境不容乐观

高盛分析师在周四发布的一份报告中表示，奈飞将继续在快速变化的流媒体环境中艰难探索。

高盛分析师Eric Sheridan表示，从奈飞的经营数据中，很明显能看到奈飞仍面临着疫情后增长正常化的困难，以及越来越激烈的行业竞争。

两位分析师还质疑奈飞与微软达成协议的时机提出了质疑，无论是战略上还是运营上。Martin说：

“奈飞三个月前在财报电话会议上宣布将推出一项广告业务，但他们竟然还没有聘请广告销售主管，” “这个商业帝国中没有一个广告专家，但却为技术栈选择了广告合作伙伴，这种想法是倒退的。”

奈飞将于下周二收盘后公布季度业绩。该公司发布第一季度财报显示，奈飞的订阅用户数意外减少20万个，报告发布后，该公司股价一度下跌超过 30%。

另外，考虑到消费萎靡、竞争加剧以及成本上升等因素，Sheridan预计奈飞接下来的几个季度的财报将遭遇考验。Sheridan维持对奈飞股票的卖出评级。

"Netflix may be looking for an exit," Laura Martin, a senior analyst at Needham, told the media on Thursday, suggesting that Netflix may be making long-term preparations for a future acquisition by Microsoft.

Netflix is trying to get close to Microsoft in the hope that Microsoft will switch to Netflix after digesting its acquisition of Activision Blizzard. "

Of the other partners Netflix can choose from, no company is able to make the $100 billion acquisition, either underfunded or subject to regulatory restrictions, according to Martin.

As of the overnight close, Netflix had a market capitalization of about $80 billion.

Why did you choose inexperienced Microsoft?

Microsoft is inexperienced in third-party advertising, while Comcast, the global parent company of Google and NBC, is even more experienced, and Netflix was expected to choose between the two. However, Netflix unexpectedly chose Microsoft, which is the main reason why Martin doubts the true intention of the partnership.

Netflix claims that it chose Microsoft because it is innovative and flexible in technology and sales, and can provide strong privacy protection for users.

Microsoft acquired advertising platform Xandr from AT&T last year, and Xandr's technology is said to be a strategic complement to Microsoft's advertising products, allowing Microsoft to speed up the delivery of its digital advertising and retail media solutions.

In Martin's view, Microsoft will need to build an important technology to meet Netflix's business needs, but this will cause Netflix to delay plans to launch ad subscriptions by the end of the year.

Martin predicts that the service will not be available until the third quarter of 2023. But investors do not want to see such a result, they hope that advertising can quickly generate revenue.

Netflix's situation is not optimistic.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a report released on Thursday that Netflix will continue to struggle to explore in a rapidly changing streaming environment.

Eric Sheridan, an analyst at Goldman Sachs, said it was clear from Netflix's operating data that Netflix still faces difficulties in normalizing growth after the outbreak and increasing competition in the industry.

The two analysts also questioned the timing of Netflix's deal with Microsoft, both strategically and operationally. Martin said:

"Netflix announced on an earnings call three months ago that it would launch an advertising business, but they haven't hired an advertising sales director yet."there is not a single advertising expert in this business empire, but they have chosen an advertising partner for the technology stack. The idea is retrogressive."

Netflix will report quarterly results after the close of trading next Tuesday. The company reported an unexpected drop of 200000 subscribers in the first quarter, and its shares fell more than 30 per cent at one point after the release of the report.

In addition, Sheridan expects Netflix's results to be tested in the coming quarters, given flagging consumption, increased competition and rising costs. Sheridan maintains its sell rating on Netflix shares.