德银:比特币像钻石全靠营销 年底能涨回2.8万美元就不错了

科技 5个月前 新浪财经
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德银的一项分析显示,鉴于比特币与美国股市的密切关联,预计到今年年底,比特币价格可能回升至2.8万美元。由于加息和通胀担忧引发避险情绪,比特币在2022年暴跌。德银分析师Marion Laboure和Galina Pozdnyakova的分析显示,比特币到年底较周三约2万美元的交易水平将上涨30%以上,但即便如此,仍不到去年11月峰值的一半。

德银:比特币像钻石全靠营销 年底能涨回2.8万美元就不错了

Laboure和Pozdnyakova表示,自去年11月以来,加密货币与纳斯达克100指数和标普500指数等基准指数的关联度越来越高。他们预计,标普500指数将在年底前恢复到1月份的水平,比特币也可能随之反弹。

两人写道,这种数字货币更像是一种高度营销的资产——钻石,而不是一种稳定的避险商品——黄金。

比特币未能实现一些专家和市场观察人士的预测,即它将被证明是投资者的避难所,今年比特币的跌幅超过了50%。在整个市场暴跌期间,数字货币的表现弱于股票、债券和大宗商品,主要央行消除过剩流动性对其价格造成了下行压力。另一方面,黄金的表现则要好得多。

Laboure和Pozdnyakova讲述了钻石巨头戴比尔斯(De Beers)的故事,他们通过广告宣传改变了消费者对钻石的看法,打造了 “钻石恒久远,一颗永流传”的神话。

两位分析师写道:“通过营销一个理念而不是一种产品,他们为每年720亿美元的钻石行业打下了坚实的基础,在过去80年里,他们一直统治着这个行业。钻石如此,包括比特币在内的许多商品和服务也如此。”

德银分析师还指出了最近几周加密领域出现的一些问题,包括某些数字资产对冲基金和贷款机构的动荡。

他们写道:“稳定代币价格很困难,因为不存在像公共股本系统内的那些通用估值模型。此外,加密货币市场是高度分散的。由于系统的复杂性,加密货币的自由落体可能会继续下去。”

Since November, the cryptocurrency has become increasingly correlated with benchmark indices such as the Nasdaq 100th index and the S & P 500, according to Laboure and Pozdnyakova. They expect the S & P 500 to return to January levels by the end of the year, with Bitcoin likely to rebound.

The digital currency is more like a highly marketed asset-diamonds than a stable safe haven-gold, the two wrote.

Bitcoin, which has fallen by more than 50 per cent this year, failed to meet the expectations of some experts and market watchers that it would prove to be a haven for investors. Throughout the market slump, digital currencies underperformed stocks, bonds and commodities, and major central banks eliminated excess liquidity putting downward pressure on their prices. Gold, on the other hand, is doing much better.

Laboure and Pozdnyakova tell the story of diamond giant De Beers, who changed the way consumers think about diamonds through advertising, creating the myth that diamonds last forever.

"by marketing an idea rather than a product, they have laid a solid foundation for the $72 billion-a-year diamond industry, which they have dominated for the past 80 years," the two analysts wrote. This is true of diamonds, and so are many goods and services, including Bitcoin. "

Deutsche Bank analysts also pointed to some problems in encryption in recent weeks, including turmoil in some digital asset hedge funds and lenders.

"it is difficult to stabilize the price of tokens because there are no common valuation models like those in the public equity system," they wrote. In addition, the cryptocurrency market is highly fragmented. Due to the complexity of the system, the free fall of cryptocurrencies is likely to continue. "

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