上海半导体供应链陆续恢复 行业期待下半年强劲反弹

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人员到岗率明显提升,物流也有所改善。“目前物流和上下游协同的困难已经慢慢解除了。”6月2日,上海川源信息科技有限公司董事长许肇元告诉第一财经,除了个别员工因为小区的原因继续远程办公外,其他员工都已回到了办公室。

上海半导体供应链陆续恢复 行业期待下半年强劲反弹

随着上海全面复工复产,上海的半导体企业人员到岗率明显提升,物流也有所改善。除了华虹、中芯国际、日月光等重点企业在疫情期间始终处于生产状态,中微公司、沪硅产业等多数企业均已进入了复工状态。集聚了不少半导体龙头企业的张江高科,其集电港、技创区两个片区的企业复工率已近70%,人员到岗率约50%。

SEMI(国际半导体产业协会)全球副总裁、中国区总裁居龙近日在接受第一财经专访时表示,供应链要完全恢复正常预计还要几周甚至几个月的时间。在推进复工复产的过程中,不仅要重视大企业,更要关注供应链上下游的中小企业的恢复以及物流通畅的情况。

作为一家自主研发全闪存阵列AFA技术与产品的高新技术公司,许肇元认为,他们的部分物料供应短期受到了疫情带来的冲击,但中长期来看,整个集成电路行业和市场不会有影响,反而会受益于由国家驱动的中国数字化转型。中国作为全球最大单一主体市场的事实不会改变。

在他看来,接下来,科技产业将成为中国发展的重点,行业期待国家政策在下半年出台围绕国产自主可控技术研发的复苏振兴计划,让市场迎来强劲反弹。

从全球半导体市场的格局来说,居龙表示,中国仍然是全球最大也是增长最快的单一市场。2021年全球半导体制造设备总销售额超过1000亿美元,中国大陆市场占了三分之一,是设备支出的第一大目的地。因此,中国市场和机遇仍然在,大量半导体领域的跨国企业也会继续重视中国市场。

居龙认为,全球半导体产能的短缺,今年还没有明显缓解的迹象。虽然在某些细分领域,终端市场的需求没那么高了,但工业和汽车行业的需求仍然较大。因此整体来说,今年的产能还是不足。

根据今年初的预测,全球半导体行业的销售额将超过6000亿美元,增长9%。受近期国内疫情的影响,数据会有所修正,但预计仍将保持正增长。SEMI日前的报告称,全球各领域对于半导体应用的需求持续增加,2022年全球前端晶圆厂设备支出总额将较前一年成长18%,实现1070亿美元的历史新高,且已连续三年大幅增长。

“2020年初,市场的需求也快速下降了,但后来出现了强劲反弹。所以对半导体来说,疫情带来的影响不会特别激烈,需求是在的。”居龙说,2020年在疫情和贸易摩擦之下,全球经济衰退但半导体行业的发展却好过预期。中国在全球市场的地位也发生了改变。随着国产化的推进,中国本土设备企业的产品不断通过产线验证,多领域成熟制程已打破垄断,进入商业化供货阶段。不过,居龙提出,以中国为总部的半导体企业,包括中芯国际、华虹在内的前10家企业,整体产量在全球的占比仍然偏低,不到10%。在不确定因素带来的风险下,多数企业为了更好地规避风险,重新考虑供应链布局在所难免,包括国内的供应链如何完善,以及是否要在不同区域间调整布局,加快全球化经营的步伐。

因此,在推进国产化的同时,居龙建议,一方面,要继续投入研发,坚持创新,帮助中国企业走进国际市场获得更强的竞争力,另一方面,政府和企业要加强沟通,让整个供应链更安全,也让跨国企业在中国的发展更加放心。

作为全球半导体产业链生态圈的专业平台,SEMI去年被邀请作为2021上海全球十大招商合作伙伴之一,参加了上海全球投资促进大会,今年也将继续参加。居龙说,在有序推进复工复产的关键时刻,每年在上海举办全球规模最大的专业半导体展SEMICON China也将在今年10月5-7日举办。目前,中外半导体上百家头部企业均在第一时间确认参展。

With the full resumption of work and production in Shanghai, the personnel arrival rate of semiconductor enterprises in Shanghai has increased significantly, and logistics has also been improved. In addition to Huahong, SMIC, Sunlight and other key enterprises have always been in the state of production during the epidemic, China Micro Corporation, Shanghai silicon industry and other enterprises have entered a state of resumption. Zhangjiang Hi-Tech, which gathers many leading semiconductor enterprises, has a rework rate of nearly 70% and a personnel arrival rate of about 50% in its power harbor and technical innovation area.

Ju long, global vice president and president of SEMI (International Semiconductor Industry Association), said in an exclusive interview with China Finance recently that it will take weeks or even months for the supply chain to fully return to normal. In the process of promoting the resumption of work and production, we should not only pay attention to large enterprises, but also pay more attention to the recovery of small and medium-sized enterprises in the upstream and downstream of the supply chain and the smooth logistics.

As a high-tech company that independently develops all-flash array AFA technology and products, Xu Zhaoyuan believes that some of their material supplies have been affected by the epidemic in the short term, but in the medium to long term, the entire integrated circuit industry and market will not be affected, but will benefit from the state-driven digital transformation in China. The fact that China is the world's largest single market will not change.

In his view, next, the science and technology industry will become the focus of China's development, and the industry expects the national policy to introduce a recovery and revitalization plan around domestic independent controllable technology research and development in the second half of the year, so that the market will usher in a strong rebound.

In terms of the pattern of the global semiconductor market, Gulong said that China is still the world's largest and fastest-growing single market. In 2021, the total sales of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in the world exceeded 100 billion US dollars, and the Chinese mainland market accounted for 1/3, which is the largest destination of equipment expenditure. Therefore, the Chinese market and opportunities are still there, and a large number of multinational companies in the semiconductor field will continue to attach importance to the Chinese market.

Gulong believes that the shortage of global semiconductor capacity shows no obvious signs of easing this year. Although demand in the end market is less high in some segments, demand in the industrial and automotive industries is still high. Therefore, on the whole, this year's production capacity is still insufficient.

According to forecasts at the beginning of this year, sales in the global semiconductor industry will exceed $600 billion, an increase of 9 per cent. Affected by the recent domestic epidemic, the data will be revised, but it is expected to maintain positive growth. According to a recent report by SEMI, the global demand for semiconductor applications continues to increase, and the total global equipment expenditure on front-end fab will grow by 18% in 2022 compared with the previous year, reaching an all-time high of US $107 billion, and has increased significantly for three consecutive years.

Demand in the market also fell rapidly at the beginning of 2020, but then rebounded strongly. So for semiconductors, the impact of the epidemic will not be particularly intense, the demand is there. " Gulong said that in 2020, under the epidemic and trade frictions, the global economy was in recession, but the development of the semiconductor industry was better than expected. China's position in the global market has also changed. With the promotion of localization, the products of Chinese local equipment enterprises continue to pass the production line verification, and the mature processes in many fields have broken the monopoly and entered the stage of commercial supply. However, Mr Gulong pointed out that China-based semiconductor companies, including SMIC and Huahong, still account for less than 10 per cent of global output. Under the risk brought by uncertain factors, it is inevitable for most enterprises to reconsider the supply chain layout in order to better avoid the risk, including how to improve the domestic supply chain and whether to adjust the layout among different regions. speed up the pace of global operation.

Therefore, while promoting localization, Julong suggested, on the one hand, continue to invest in research and development, adhere to innovation, and help Chinese enterprises enter the international market to gain stronger competitiveness, on the other hand, the government and enterprises should strengthen communication, make the whole supply chain safer, and make the development of multinational enterprises in China more at ease.

As a professional platform of the global semiconductor industry chain ecosystem, SEMI was invited to participate in the Shanghai Global Investment Promotion Conference last year as one of the top ten investment promotion partners in Shanghai in 2021, and will continue to participate this year. Gulong said that at the critical moment of orderly resumption of work and production, SEMICON China, the world's largest professional semiconductor exhibition held in Shanghai every year, will also be held on October 5-7 this year. At present, hundreds of leading Chinese and foreign semiconductor companies have confirmed their participation in the exhibition at the first time.

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版权声明:一财网 发表于 2022-06-04 00:27。
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