马斯克开始赖皮了?他捅了推特一刀子

美国股市正在崩溃,现在看来埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)收购推特的交易也可能会崩溃,会吗?马斯克在周五意外宣布搁置收购推特的交易,原因是他需要弄清楚推特上的虚假/垃圾账号是否像该公司长期宣称的那样低于5%。

这个理由很奇怪,因为网络机器人并不是什么新鲜事。马斯克曾多次表示,消灭垃圾账号机器人将是让推特变得更有价值的关键。但是,此人既难以捉摸,也不知疲倦。在第一条推特发布后不久,他又回到了推特上告诉他的粉丝,他“仍然致力于完成收购”。

马斯克开始赖皮了?他捅了推特一刀子

马斯克宣布搁置推特交易

对许多人来说,这种犹豫感觉是人为制造的。马斯克迅速重申了自己的收购承诺,这对一些投资者来说意味着,马斯克此举只是为了重新磋商价格,而不是退出交易。

压价

马斯克有充分的理由回到谈判桌上来。自4月4日马斯克披露其最初持有的9%以上的推特股份以来,科技股暴跌几乎改变了所有公司的价值。截至周五,纳斯达克指数自那以来已下跌了大约22%,推特倒是仅下跌了10%。但是,推特股价周五报收于40.72美元,较此前一个交易日下跌了9.7%。市场认为,投资者应该与马斯克提出的每股54.20美元的收购价说再见了,这也许是正确的。

他显然是想压价,因为在过去几周的股市抛售潮中,特斯拉的股价大幅下跌。韦德布什证券分析师丹·艾夫斯(Dan Ives)在接受电话采访时称。“现在的市场和30天前不一样了。当特斯拉市值损失3000亿美元时,故事就变了。”目前,马斯克正在用他的特斯拉股票来筹集部分现金,并质押股票进行贷款。

“马斯克试图达成一笔更好的交易,”交易所交易基金Future Fund Active联合创始人加里·布莱克(Gary Black)称,“随着市场越来越感到怀疑,马斯克提出了一个值得怀疑的理由来重新谈判这笔交易。”

马斯克开始赖皮了?他捅了推特一刀子

推特股价走势

股市研究公司New construct CEO大卫·特雷纳(David Trainer)表示:“这笔交易被暂时搁置并不让人感到惊讶。过去几年人为推高股价的投机力量正在减弱,这改变了马斯克/推特这样的交易的计算方法。”

不管是不是人为的,机器人问题都可能会让马斯克选择退出。他与推特达成的协议规定,只有在与该公司有未披露的问题时,他才能支付10亿美元分手费后离开。

推特多年来一直坚称,机器人在其用户中的占比不到5%,但如果这个数字更高,马斯克可能会试图取消交易。问题不在于他是否负担得起这笔交易,他是世界上最富有的人,即使特斯拉的股价在他宣布入股推特后暴跌了33%。

推特如何应对?

不过,推特董事会现在的处境艰难。在意识到没有“白衣骑士”出价来拯救公司,抵御马斯克的敌意收购后,董事会与马斯克达成协议。垃圾邮件或虚假用户账号,是推特在过去几年一直致力于解决的一个众所周知的问题。

无论如何,推特管理层可能不希望这笔交易失败。在马斯克透露收购意向的前一天,该公司股价仅为39.31美元。如果该股随后的跌幅与纳斯达克指数一样大,那么目前的股价将在32美元左右,较周五的收盘价低21%。

重新谈判可能是最好的出路。为了基本上与纳斯达克指数的跌幅相匹配,新的报价可能在44美元左右。这比马斯克提出收购前的推特股价高出12%,几乎可以肯定的是,这要比没有马斯克出价,推特自己能够触及的股价要高得多。

股东们可能会失望,但他们仍然会获利。更大的赢家将是马斯克,他似乎总是能得到自己想要的。

This reason is strange, because Internet robots are nothing new. Musk has repeatedly said that eliminating spam account robots will be the key to making Twitter more valuable. But the man was both elusive and tireless. Shortly after the first tweet, he returned to Twitter to tell his fans that he was "still committed to completing the acquisition".

Musk announces shelving the Twitter deal

For many people, this feeling of hesitation is artificial. Mr Musk quickly reiterated his commitment to the acquisition, which meant to some investors that Mr Musk was only trying to renegotiate the price, not to withdraw from the deal.

Depress the price

Musk has every reason to return to the negotiating table. The collapse in technology stocks has changed the value of almost all companies since Mr Musk revealed his initial 9 per cent stake in Twitter on April 4th.As of Friday, the Nasdaq index has fallen about 22% since then, while Twitter is down only 10%.But Twitter shares closed Friday at $40.72, down 9.7% from the previous session. The market may be right to believe that investors should say goodbye to Mr Musk's offer of $54.20 a share.

He obviously wants to lower the price because Tesla's share price has fallen sharply in the stock market sell-off over the past few weeks. Dan Dan Ives, an analyst at Wade Bush Securities, said in a telephone interview. "the market is different now than it was 30 days ago. When Tesla lost $300 billion in market capitalization, the story changed. " At present, Musk is using his Tesla stock to raise some cash and pledge the stock for loans.

"Musk is trying to get a better deal," said Gary Black, co-founder of Future Fund Active, an exchange-traded fund."as the market became more sceptical, Mr Musk offered a dubious reason to renegotiate the deal."

The trend of Twitter share price

"it is not surprising that the deal has been put on hold," said David Trainer, New construct CEO, a stock market research firm. The speculative power that has artificially pushed up share prices over the past few years is weakening, changing the way deals like Musk / Twitter are calculated. "

Whether it is man-made or not, the robot problem may cause Musk to opt out. His agreement with Twitter stipulates that he can only pay a $1 billion break-up fee and leave if he has an undisclosed problem with the company.

Twitter has insisted for years that robots account for less than 5% of its users, but if that number is higher, Mr Musk may try to cancel the deal. The question is not whether he can afford the deal, he is the richest man in the world, even though Tesla's share price plummeted 33 per cent after he announced his stake in Twitter.

How does Twitter respond?

However, the Twitter board is in a difficult situation. After realizing that there was no "white knight" offer to save the company from a hostile takeover by Musk, the board reached an agreement with Musk.Spam or fake user accounts is a well-known problem that Twitter has been trying to solve over the past few years.

In any case, Twitter management may not want the deal to fail. The day before Musk revealed his intention to buy, the company's share price was just $39.31. If the stock subsequently fell as much as the Nasdaq, it would be around $32, 21% below Friday's closing price.

Renegotiation may be the best way out. To basically match the decline in the NASDAQ, the new offer could be around $44. That's 12% higher than Twitter's share price before Musk's offer, and it's almost certainly much higher than Twitter itself could have touched without Musk's offer.

Shareholders may be disappointed, but they will still make a profit.The bigger winner will be Musk, who always seems to get what he wants.

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