在芯片产业中，存储芯片是全球集成电路市场销售额占比最高的分支，在产业中占据很重要的地位。 2021年存储行业整体营收共计
214.49亿元，同比增长 91%，达五年间最高增速。归母净利润共计 50.58 亿元，同比增长 112%，增速较2020 年增长 74
pct。
而计算芯片难度最大、壁垒最高，目前国产化率较低，一旦产品得到市场认可，就具备高壁垒、高利润率和高成性。 2021 年计算芯片板块公司整体营收共计 484.89 亿元，同比增长39.9%，达五年间最高增速。归母净利润共计 69.12 亿元，同比增长273%，增速较 2020 年增长 213 pct。
本期的智能内参，我们推荐首创证券的报告《存储&计算芯片21年报&22 年一季报总结》，解读2021年和2022Q1存储、计算芯片行业发展。
作者：何立中 杨宇轩
一、存储芯片，非易失性存储表现抢眼
1、行业整体概况
存储器应用广泛，且需求持续提升。在消费电子、计算机及周边、工业控制、白色家电、通信等传统应用领域均存在稳定的数据存储需求，市场规模在 2016 年之前呈现平稳发展的态势。
随着智能手机摄像头模组升级和AIoT 的发展，智能手机摄像头、汽车电子、智能电表、智能家居、可穿戴设备等新型市场均有较大需求，与此同时，传统应用领域的快速智能化发展也为其需求提升增添了助力。
中国存储器处于上行周期，非易失性存储是国产 IC 较好切入点。存储芯片市场占比最高，增速远超行业均值，中国存储需求旺盛，但自给率低，大容量的 DRAM、SRAM 等易失性存储市场集中度较高，美韩三家企业占据垄断地位，技术布局早、竞争较为激烈。
相比大容量的DRAM、SRAM等易失性存储，EEPROM、NOR Flash 等小容量非易失性存储芯片毛利相对低，技术壁垒相对低，国外巨头逐步退出这部分竞争，对于中国企业而言，聚焦这部分产品及其相关应用，可以有效放大自身比较优势，实现和国内外大容量存储巨头的差异化竞争。
▲存储芯片分类
EEPROM 和 NOR Flash 领域我国存储企业已具备替代能力，具备一定认可度。目前聚辰股份和兆易创新分别在 EEPROM 和 NOR Flash 领域占据全球第三的位置，在国内外积累了良好的品牌认知和优质的客户资源。
我国 EEPROM 仍具备从消费电子向汽车、工控等领域的较大拓展空间。2020 年，我国企业聚辰股份、复旦微电、华杰芯片和普冉股份份额排名分别为第三、第八、第九和第十，同比增速分别为-4.24%、4.35%、5.00%和 109.82%，但我国企业 EEPROM 占比仍较低，如聚辰股份等已在消费电子领域具备较高份额，在汽车、工控等领域仍具备较大提升空间。
▲EEPROM 公司 2020 年份额和增速情况
NOR Flash 我国企业占比低增速高，份额具备较大提升空间。2020 年，我国企业兆易创新、普冉股份和武汉新芯份额排名分别为第三、第六和第七，同比增速分别为 17.1%、111.1%和 83.9%，而美国的美光科技和赛普拉斯增速已经显著降低，分别为-52.5%和 23.1%，中国台湾华邦电子和旺宏电子增速也有所下降。
▲NOR Flash 公司 2020 年份额和增速情况
2、2021存储行业营收概况
随着 AIoT、智能驾驶、“东数西算”等下游应用的发展，存储芯片需求持续高增。2021 年存储行业整体营收共计 214.5 亿元，同比增长 91%，达五年间最高增速。归母净利润共计 50.6 亿元，同比增长 112%，增速较 2020 年增长 74 pct。
▲2017-2021 年存储板块公司营业收入
▲ 2017-2021 年存储板块公司归母净利润
多数公司实现高增长，部分受新旧产品、不同领域切换影响短时承压。分公司来看，多数存储企业营业收入和净利润增速较为理想，且净利润增速普遍高于营业收入增速。其中，东芯股份净利润增速最高，达 1354.24%，主要是因为销售规模逐步扩大，规模效应显现，以及产品结构优化、加强外汇管理降低汇兑损失等原因；
北京君正净利润增速达 1163%，主要系存储产品线的扩充等原因；
国科微、普冉股份、兆易创新三家公司净利润增速均超过 160%；
澜起科技和聚辰股份增速不及预期主要是因为：澜起科技 DDR4和 DDR5 产品新旧转换期，聚辰股份从深度收益消费电子的龙头向汽车和服务器转化过程中，去年收入和利润规模也受到了一定影响。
▲ 存储板块公司 2021 年营业收入、净利润情况
2021 年存储板块毛利率 41%，同比提升 2 pct。2021 年存储板块净利率 24%，同比提升 3 pct。
存储板块公司盈利能力不断提升主要有两方面原因：1）行业景气度提升，代工厂产能紧缺，供不应求助力公司产品涨价落地；2）汽车、服务器、工控等需求增速高于消费电子，且这些下游需求要求高、毛利率高，公司产品结构随下游需求不断优化，毛利率高的产品占比提升，也促进了毛利率的提升。
澜起科技 2021 年的毛利率、净利率下滑，对存储板块的拉动作用降低，预计今年拉动作用将增强。主要原因系 DDR4 内存接口芯片进入产品生命周期后期，产品价格较上年度有所下降，同时 DDR5 相关产品在 2021Q4 才正式量产出货从而造成互连类芯片产品线的毛利率从上年度的 73.08%降至2021 年度的 66.72%，预计今年会有较大幅度的提升，对存储板块的拉动作用也将增强。
▲2017-2021 年存储板块公司毛利率变化情况
▲2017-2021 年存储板块公司净利率变化情况
板块营收、净利润同比高增，受季节影响环比小幅承压。2021Q1 存储板块整体营收共计 58.22 亿元，同比增长 47.8%，环比降低 0.6%。归母净利润共计 14.1 亿元，同比增长 118%，环比降低 11.7%。
板块景气度持续增长，盈利能力较 2021 年仍在提升。2021Q1 存储板块毛利率 42%，同比提升 8 pct，较 2021 年整体又提升了 1 pct。存储板块净利率 24%，同比提升 8 pct，与 2021 年整体净利率持平。2021Q1 存储板块公司盈利能力提升原因与 2021 年提升原因一致，主要系前文所述的下游景气和产品结构优化两个原因。
二、计算芯片，MCU成为明星
1、行业整体情况
计算芯片几乎是集成电路中最难的一个分类，前期投入多、技术难度大，需要较长时间的技术积累与用户反馈。
计算芯片指令集架构的自主性是关键壁垒。世界上主流的几个指令集有 X86、ARM、MIPS、RISC-V、POWER 等，里面包含了实现各种功能的指令，实现指令集架构的物理电路被称为处理器的微架构，微架构设计为嵌入式 CPU 最核心的技术之一，决定了嵌入式 CPU 内核的性能、功耗等核心指标。
能否根据现有的指令集开发自主的指令集架构，实现指令的自主增删、架构的自主升级，对于计算芯片玩家的后来者，都是至关重要的问题，是关键壁垒，决定了这些企业能否长久走下去。指令集架构是指一种类型 CPU中用来计算和控制系统的一套指令的集合。
前国内外绝大部分芯片设计企业，都是通过购买成熟的指令集架构授权，来进行芯片设计，只有少数国际顶级芯片设计企业，如高通、苹果等自行设计嵌入式 CPU 内核。
具备自主设计指令集架构的好处有几点：
1）绝对的自主权，无断供风险。可以自己决定修改、增加指令，可以自主升级，可以自主决定使用领域，不会出现供应链安全问题；
2）绝对的安全性。在金融、安全、党政军等重大领域，完全自主设计的指令集架构可以保证信息的绝对安全；
3）收益上的优势。X86、ARM等架构都有比较高昂的授权费，基于开源指令集自研，节省了授权费，自主研发的指令集架构对外授权还能获取毛利率 90%以上的收益。
2、营收概况
计算芯片净利润实现302%高增速。2021年计算芯片板块公司整体营收共计 484.89 亿元，同比增长 39.9%，达五年间最高增速。归母净利润共计69.12 亿元，同比增长 273%，增速较 2020 年增长 213 pct。
▲2017-2021 年计算芯片板块公司营业收入变化趋势
▲2017-2021 年计算芯片板块公司归母净利润变化趋势
计算芯片板块公司分化较为明显，FPGA 具备较高景气度。分公司来看，计算芯片板块公司具备较强分化，具体来看：FPGA 具备较高景气度，安路科技、复旦微电、紫光国微净利润增速均超 148%；MCU 分化最为明显，国民技术、纳思达净利润下降明显，而兆易创新、乐鑫科技、中颖电子和国芯科技的净利润增速分别为 165%、91%、85%和 53%；IP 在一定程度承压，芯原股份-U 净利润下降 152%。
▲计算芯片板块公司 2021 年营业收入、净利润情况
2021 年计算芯片板块毛利率 42.9%，同比提升 4.6 pct。2021 年存储板块净利率 14.3%，同比提升 8.9 pct。
板块内公司之间因研发投入、产品市场化进展差异较大，毛利率和净利率水平也有较大差异，率先放量的公司，就将具备高壁垒、高利润率和高成长性。
▲2017-2021 年计算芯片板块公司毛利率变化情况
2021 年，计算芯片板块研发费用率为 14.0%，较上年同期增加 0.2 pct。其中，寒武纪-U 研发费用率为 157.5%；安路科技-U 为 35.9%；芯原股份-U、复旦微电、景嘉微、国民技术、国芯科技介于 20%-30%，分别为 29.4%、26.8%、23.2%、22.3%和22.0%；乐鑫科技、中颖电子、峰岹科技和紫光国微介于 10%-20%，分别为19.6%、17.7%、12.4%和 11.8%；兆易创新和纳思达低于 10%，分别为 9.9%和 6.4%。
研发费用率较高主要有两个原因：1）行业整体原因：研发人员薪酬普遍提升；2）公司层面原因：产品技术难度高，需不断提高研发投入保持公司技术实力，加之公司还未大规模放量，研发费用率降低不明显。
▲2017-2021 计算芯片板块公司研发费用率情况
智东西认为，计算和存储芯片两大类非常重要的芯片，EEPROM 和 NOR Flash 领域我国存储企业已具备替代能力，具备一定认可度。计算芯片一直是我国的软肋，但是MCU、FPGA等细分赛道的突破还是给我国计算芯片带来了一定的曙光。
The computing chip is the most difficult, the highest barrier, the current localization rate is low, once the product has been recognized by the market, it has high barriers, high profit margins and high profitability. In 2021, the overall revenue of computing chip companies totaled 48.489 billion yuan, an increase of 39.9% over the same period last year, the highest growth rate in five years. The return net profit totaled 6.912 billion yuan, an increase of 273 percent over the same period last year, or an increase of 213 pct over 2020.
For the intelligent internal reference of this issue, we recommend the first securities report “Storage & Computing Chip 21 report & 22 Quarterly report Summary” to interpret the development of the storage and computing chip industry in 2021 and 2022Q1.
Author: he Lizhong and Yang Yuxuan
Memory chip, non-volatile memory performance is eye-catching.
1. General situation of the industry
Memory is widely used, and the demand continues to increase. There is a stable demand for data storage in consumer electronics, computers and peripherals, industrial control, white goods, communications and other traditional applications, and the market scale shows a trend of steady development before 2016.
With the upgrade of smartphone camera module and the development of AIoT, there is a great demand in new markets such as smartphone camera, automotive electronics, smart meter, smart home, wearable devices and so on. At the same time, the rapid intelligent development of traditional applications has also increased its demand.
Chinese memory is in the uplink cycle, and non-volatile storage is a better starting point for domestic IC. Memory chip market accounts for the highest proportion, the growth rate is much higher than the industry average, China’s storage demand is strong, but the self-sufficiency rate is low, the high-capacity volatile storage market such as DRAM and SRAM is highly concentrated, the United States and South Korea occupy a monopoly position, the technology layout is early and the competition is fierce.
Compared with large-capacity volatile storage such as DRAM and SRAM, small-capacity non-volatile memory chips such as EEPROM and NOR Flash have relatively low gross profit and low technical barriers, and foreign giants have gradually withdrawn from this part of the competition. For Chinese enterprises, focusing on these products and related applications can effectively enlarge their own comparative advantages and achieve differential competition with domestic and foreign large-capacity storage giants.
Classification of memory chips
In the field of EEPROM and NOR Flash, Chinese storage enterprises already have the substitute ability and have a certain degree of recognition. At present, Juchen Stock and Zhaoyi Innovation occupy the third place in the world in the field of EEPROM and NOR Flash respectively, and have accumulated good brand awareness and high-quality customer resources at home and abroad.
China’s EEPROM still has a lot of room to expand from consumer electronics to automobile, industrial control and other fields. In 2020, the shares of Chinese enterprises Juchen shares, Fudan Micro Power, Huajie Chip and Puran ranked third, eighth, ninth and tenth respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of-4.24%, 4.35%, 5.00% and 109.82%, respectively. However, the proportion of EEPROM of Chinese enterprises is still low. For example, Juchen shares already have a high share in the field of consumer electronics, and there is still much room for improvement in automotive, industrial control and other fields.
Share and growth rate of EEPROM in 2020
The proportion of Chinese enterprises in NOR Flash is low and the growth rate is high, so the share has much room for improvement. In 2020, Chinese enterprises Zhaoyi Innovation, Pran and Wuhan Xinxin ranked third, sixth and seventh, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.1%, 111.1% and 83.9%, respectively, while Micron Technology and Cypress’s growth rate in the United States has significantly slowed down. The growth rates of Huabang Electronics and Wang Hong Electronics in Taiwan have also declined.
Share and growth rate of NOR Flash in 2020
2. 2021 Overview of revenue in the storage industry
With the development of downstream applications such as AIoT, intelligent driving and “counting east and west”, the demand for memory chips continues to increase. In 2021, the overall revenue of the storage industry totaled 21.45 billion yuan, an increase of 91% over the same period last year, the highest growth rate in five years. The net profit returned to the home totaled 5.06 billion yuan, an increase of 112% over the same period last year, or an increase of 74 pct over 2020.
Operating income of storage companies in 2017-2021
2017-2021 net profit of storage companies in the storage sector
Most companies achieve high growth, partly under short-term pressure due to the impact of new and old products and the switch between different areas. From the point of view of the branch, the growth rate of operating income and net profit of most storage enterprises is ideal, and the growth rate of net profit is generally higher than that of operating income. Among them, Dongxin shares had the highest net profit growth rate of 1354.24%, mainly due to the gradual expansion of sales scale, the appearance of scale effect, the optimization of product structure, strengthening foreign exchange management and reducing exchange losses.
Beijing Junzheng’s net profit increased by 1163%, mainly due to the expansion of the storage product line.
The net profit growth rate of national science micro, Puran and Zhaoyi innovation all exceeded 160%.
The slower-than-expected growth rate of Lan Qi Technology and Juchen shares is mainly due to the fact that during the period of transformation of science and technology DDR4 and DDR5 products from the leader of deep-income consumer electronics to cars and servers, last year’s income and profit scale were also affected to a certain extent.
The operating income and net profit of the Storage sector Company in 2021
In 2021, the gross profit margin of the storage sector was 41%, an increase of 2 pct over the same period last year. The net interest rate of the storage sector in 2021 was 24%, an increase of 3 pct over the same period last year.
There are two main reasons for the continuous improvement of the profitability of storage companies: 1) the prosperity of the industry has improved, and the production capacity of contract factories is in short supply, which helps the company’s products to rise in price and land. 2) the demand growth rate of automobiles, servers and industrial control is higher than that of consumer electronics, and these downstream demand requirements are high, the gross profit margin is high, the company’s product structure is continuously optimized with the downstream demand, and the proportion of products with high gross profit margin increases, which also promotes the improvement of gross profit margin.
Lan Qi Technology’s gross profit margin and net profit margin declined in 2021, reducing the pulling effect on the storage plate, which is expected to be strengthened this year. The main reason is that the DDR4 memory interface chip has entered the late life cycle of the product, and the product price has dropped somewhat compared with the previous year. At the same time, DDR5-related products are only officially produced in 2021Q4, resulting in a drop in gross profit margin of the interconnection chip product line from 73.08% last year to 66.72% in 2021. It is expected that there will be a significant increase this year, and the pulling effect on the storage sector will also be enhanced.
Changes in gross profit margin of storage companies in 2017-2021
Changes in net interest rates of Storage sector companies in 2017-2021
Plate revenue, net profit increased year-on-year, affected by the season compared to the small pressure. The overall revenue of the 2021Q1 storage sector totaled 5.822 billion yuan, an increase of 47.8% over the same period last year and a decrease of 0.6% from the previous month. The net profit returned to the mother totaled 1.41 billion yuan, an increase of 118% over the same period last year and a decrease of 11.7% from the previous month.
The prosperity of the plate continues to grow, and profitability is still improving compared with 2021. The gross profit margin of the 2021Q1 storage sector is 42%, up 8 pct from the same period last year and 1 pct higher than in 2021 as a whole. The net interest rate of the storage sector is 24%, an increase of 8 pct over the same period last year, which is the same as the overall net interest rate in 2021. The reasons for the increase in profitability of 2021Q1 storage companies are the same as those in 2021, mainly due to the downstream boom and product structure optimization mentioned above.
Computing chip, MCU becomes a star
1. Overall situation of the industry
Computing chip is almost the most difficult classification of integrated circuits, which requires a long time of technology accumulation and user feedback because of the large investment and technical difficulty in the early stage.
The autonomy of the instruction set architecture of computing chips is a key barrier. There are several mainstream instruction sets in the world, such as X86, ARM, MIPS, RISC-V, POWER, etc., which contain instructions to achieve various functions. The physical circuit that implements the instruction set architecture is called processor microarchitecture, which is designed as one of the core technologies of embedded CPU, which determines the performance, power consumption and other core indicators of embedded CPU kernel.
Whether the independent instruction set architecture can be developed according to the existing instruction set, the independent addition and deletion of instructions and the independent upgrade of architecture are all crucial issues and key barriers for the latecomers of computing chip players. determines whether these enterprises can go on for a long time. Instruction set architecture refers to a set of instructions used to calculate and control the system in a type of CPU.
In the past, most chip design companies at home and abroad carry out chip design by purchasing mature instruction set architecture licenses, and only a few top international chip design companies, such as Qualcomm and Apple, design embedded CPU cores by themselves.
There are several advantages to having a self-designed instruction set architecture:
1) absolute autonomy and no risk of outage. You can decide to modify and add instructions, you can upgrade independently, you can decide on your own areas of use, and there will be no supply chain security problems.
2) absolute security. In major fields such as finance, security, party, government and military, a completely self-designed instruction set architecture can ensure the absolute security of information.
3) the advantage of income. X86, ARM and other architectures have relatively high authorization fees. Self-research based on open source instruction sets saves authorization fees, and the self-developed instruction set architecture can also earn a gross profit margin of more than 90%.
2. Revenue profile
The net profit of the computing chip achieved a high growth rate of 302%. In 2021, the overall revenue of computing chip companies totaled 48.489 billion yuan, an increase of 39.9% over the same period last year, the highest growth rate in five years. The return net profit totaled 6.912 billion yuan, an increase of 273 percent over the same period last year, or an increase of 213 pct over 2020.
The changing trend of operating income of Computing Chip companies in 2017-2021
The changing trend of home net profit of computing chip companies in 2017-2021
The division of computing chip companies is more obvious, FPGA has a higher scene bearing. From the point of view of the branch, the computing chip company has a strong differentiation. Specifically, FPGA has a high bearing. The net profit growth rate of Anlu Technology, Fudan Micro Power and Ziguangguo Micro is more than 148%. The differentiation is the most obvious, while the net profit growth rates of National Technology and Nasta are obvious, while the net profit growth rates of Zhaoyi Innovation, Lexin Technology, Zhongying Electronics and Guoxin Technology are 165%, 91%, 85% and 53%, respectively. IP was under pressure to some extent, and net profit of Core original shares-U fell 152 per cent.
Calculate the operating income and net profit of the chip plate company in 2021
In 2021, the gross profit margin of the computing chip sector was 42.9%, an increase of 4.6 pct over the same period last year. The net interest rate of the storage sector in 2021 was 14.3%, an increase of 8.9 pct over the same period last year.
Because there are great differences in R & D investment, product marketization progress, gross profit margin and net profit rate between companies in the plate, the companies that take the lead in volume will have high barriers, high profit margins and high growth.
The change of gross profit margin of computing chip companies in 2017-2021
In 2021, the rate of R & D spending on computing chips was 14.0%, an increase of 0.2 pct over the same period last year. Among them, the R & D expenditure rate of Cambrian-U is 157.5%; Anlu Technology-U is 35.9%; Xinyuan shares-U, Fudan Micro Power, Jing Jiawei, National Technology and National Core Technology are between 20% and 30%, which are 29.4%, 26.8%, 23.2%, 22.3% and 22.0%, respectively. Lexin Technology, Zhongying Electronics, Fengfeng Technology and Ziguangguo are between 10% and 20%, 19.6%, 17.7%, 12.4% and 11.8% respectively, while Zhaoyi Innovation and Nasta are less than 10%, 9.9% and 6.4% respectively.
There are two main reasons for the high R & D expenditure rate: 1) the overall reason of the industry: the salary of R & D personnel is generally increased; 2) the reason at the company level: the product technology is difficult, and it is necessary to continuously increase R & D investment to maintain the company’s technical strength. In addition, the company has not yet made a large-scale expansion, and the reduction of R & D expenditure rate is not obvious.
The R & D expenditure rate of computing chip companies in 2017-2021
Wise thingsIt is considered that there are two very important types of computing and memory chips, and Chinese storage enterprises in the field of EEPROM and NOR Flash already have the ability to replace and have a certain degree of recognition. Computing chips have always been the weakness of our country, but the breakthroughs of subdivision tracks such as MCU and FPGA have brought some dawn to our computing chips.
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