“马斯克试图达成一笔更好的交易，”交易所交易基金Future Fund Active联合创始人加里·布莱克(Gary Black)称，“随着市场越来越感到怀疑，马斯克提出了一个值得怀疑的理由来重新谈判这笔交易。”
股市研究公司New construct CEO大卫·特雷纳(David Trainer)表示:“这笔交易被暂时搁置并不让人感到惊讶。过去几年人为推高股价的投机力量正在减弱，这改变了马斯克/推特这样的交易的计算方法。”
This reason is strange, because Internet robots are nothing new. Musk has repeatedly said that eliminating spam account robots will be the key to making Twitter more valuable. But the man was both elusive and tireless. Shortly after the first tweet, he returned to Twitter to tell his fans that he was “still committed to completing the acquisition”.
Musk announces shelving the Twitter deal
For many people, this feeling of hesitation is artificial. Mr Musk quickly reiterated his commitment to the acquisition, which meant to some investors that Mr Musk was only trying to renegotiate the price, not to withdraw from the deal.
Depress the price
Musk has every reason to return to the negotiating table. The collapse in technology stocks has changed the value of almost all companies since Mr Musk revealed his initial 9 per cent stake in Twitter on April 4th.As of Friday, the Nasdaq index has fallen about 22% since then, while Twitter is down only 10%.But Twitter shares closed Friday at $40.72, down 9.7% from the previous session. The market may be right to believe that investors should say goodbye to Mr Musk’s offer of $54.20 a share.
He obviously wants to lower the price because Tesla’s share price has fallen sharply in the stock market sell-off over the past few weeks. Dan Dan Ives, an analyst at Wade Bush Securities, said in a telephone interview. “the market is different now than it was 30 days ago. When Tesla lost $300 billion in market capitalization, the story changed. ” At present, Musk is using his Tesla stock to raise some cash and pledge the stock for loans.
“Musk is trying to get a better deal,” said Gary Black, co-founder of Future Fund Active, an exchange-traded fund.“as the market became more sceptical, Mr Musk offered a dubious reason to renegotiate the deal.”
The trend of Twitter share price
“it is not surprising that the deal has been put on hold,” said David Trainer, New construct CEO, a stock market research firm. The speculative power that has artificially pushed up share prices over the past few years is weakening, changing the way deals like Musk / Twitter are calculated. “
Whether it is man-made or not, the robot problem may cause Musk to opt out. His agreement with Twitter stipulates that he can only pay a $1 billion break-up fee and leave if he has an undisclosed problem with the company.
Twitter has insisted for years that robots account for less than 5% of its users, but if that number is higher, Mr Musk may try to cancel the deal. The question is not whether he can afford the deal, he is the richest man in the world, even though Tesla’s share price plummeted 33 per cent after he announced his stake in Twitter.
How does Twitter respond?
However, the Twitter board is in a difficult situation. After realizing that there was no “white knight” offer to save the company from a hostile takeover by Musk, the board reached an agreement with Musk.Spam or fake user accounts is a well-known problem that Twitter has been trying to solve over the past few years.
In any case, Twitter management may not want the deal to fail. The day before Musk revealed his intention to buy, the company’s share price was just $39.31. If the stock subsequently fell as much as the Nasdaq, it would be around $32, 21% below Friday’s closing price.
Renegotiation may be the best way out. To basically match the decline in the NASDAQ, the new offer could be around $44. That’s 12% higher than Twitter’s share price before Musk’s offer, and it’s almost certainly much higher than Twitter itself could have touched without Musk’s offer.
Shareholders may be disappointed, but they will still make a profit.The bigger winner will be Musk, who always seems to get what he wants.