据外媒报道，虚拟货币崩盘，很大一部分责任归咎于一种名为 TerraUSD 的虚拟货币。
TerraUSD 是最大的所谓“稳定币”之一，这意味着它应该保持接近法定货币（在这种情况下为美元）的价值。虚拟货币投资者将稳定币视为加密游戏中的一种检查点，当他们不购买波动性更大的货币时，可以“安全”地存储他们的投资。然而，本周 TerraUSD 的价值跌至 30 美分的最低点，但TerraUSD “通常波动只有千分之几”。
与其他一些稳定币不同，TerraUSD 与虚拟货币挂钩，而不是直接与它应该保持平价的法定货币挂钩。TerraUSD与 Luna 挂钩，Luna 建立在同一个区块链上。TerraUSD 和 Luna 的储备是通过算法创建和销毁以保持其相对价值，在任一方向上的反弹不到一美分，使它们值得买卖——它们之间的交易也有助于稳定价值。
直到本周，当 Luna 的价值下跌超过 75% 时，TerraUSD 的价值也随之拉低。此时，TerraUSD 的创建者 Do Kwon 打开了他的储备金，他购买了价值 35 亿美元的比特币来支撑 TerraUSD，并在已经动荡的虚拟货币市场上掀起了一股冲击波。
Brian Armstrong, founder of Coinbase, has lost about 83% of his wealth to $2.3 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. Zhao Changpeng, chief executive of Yuan’an, lost nearly 90 per cent of his personal wealth from US $96 billion to US $11.6 billion. Since Tesla had previously announced that he had bought Bitcoin at a cost of about $32000, the company could have lost nearly $200m if it still held the currency.
It is worth mentioning that May 12 can be regarded as a “Black Thursday”, with commodities falling almost everywhere except virtual currencies. So, what will be the impact on A-shares?
On May 12th, the price of the Luna continued to plummet from around $6, with a low price of less than 3 cents to $0.0255, a drop of 99.37%. This decline can be described as “blood avalanche”.
In fact, it is not just this virtual currency that has fallen so much. Dozens of virtual currencies fell sharply on May 12.
At one point, the market capitalization of bitcoin and ethercoin fell by more than 10% and 20%, respectively, and then stabilized. The dog coins previously carried by Musk plummeted by nearly 25%.
According to the data, a total of nearly 400000 people have exploded in the past 24 hours, with the largest single explosion reaching $10 million.
As the virtual currency has plummeted, 43 companies or institutions, including grayscale investments, have held 1.2256 million bitcoins so far, according to data from Okeyun chain Masters, quoted by the Caihui news agency. Institutions and companies, including Tesla, have lost more than $13 billion in bitcoin holdings. Among them, AKer ASA lost $21.62 million, Meitu lost $19.75 million and Plunwra lost $16.95 million. In addition, Tesla holds 40900 bitcoins, with an average price of $32000.
At the same time, the value of investment bosses has also plummeted recently. Coinbase founder Brian Armstrong (Brian Armstrong), who had a personal fortune of $13.7 billion in November, has lost about 83% of his wealth to $2.3 billion so far, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
Zhao Changpeng, chief executive of Yuan’an, suffered more losses than Armstrong. In January, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, Zhao Changpeng’s personal wealth was $96 billion. As of May 11, that figure had shrunk to $11.6 billion, a loss of nearly 90 per cent.
According to foreign media reports, a large part of the blame for the collapse of the virtual currency lies in a virtual currency called TerraUSD.
The TerraUSD is one of the largest so-called “stable currencies”, which means it should remain close to the value of legal tender (in this case, the dollar). Virtual currency investors see stable currencies as a checkpoint in encryption games, where they can store their investments “safely” when they do not buy more volatile currencies. However, the value of the TerraUSD fell to a low of 30 cents this week, but the TerraUSD “usually fluctuates by only a few thousandths”.
Unlike some other stable currencies, TerraUSD is pegged to virtual currencies, rather than directly to legal tender, where it is supposed to be parity. TerraUSD is linked to Luna, and Luna is built on the same block chain. TerraUSD and Luna’s reserves are algorithmically created and destroyed to maintain their relative value, rebounding less than a penny in either direction, making them worth buying and selling-and trading between them also helps stabilize value.
Until this week, when the value of Luna fell by more than 75 per cent, so did the value of TerraUSD. At this point, Do Kwon, the founder of TerraUSD, opened his reserves, bought $3.5 billion worth of bitcoins to support TerraUSD, and sent shockwaves through the already volatile virtual currency market.
Analysts believe that from the root cause, it may still be related to the recent continuous rise in the dollar index and the tightening of dollar liquidity. The stock market has continued to tumble recently as a result of the Fed’s interest rate hikes and shrinking schedules. The structural variety of the whole market is relatively rich and complex, some investors may use virtual currency as collateral, or allocate virtual currency in their portfolio. As the stock market falls, there is the possibility of a sudden sell-off of virtual currencies.
How does the fall of commodities affect A-shares
It is worth mentioning that not only virtual currencies, but also commodities have fallen across the board. LME tin fell more than 10% at one point in European trading on may 12, the lowest since September last year.
Meanwhile, the dollar index continued to rise, rising above 104.6 on May 12.
So, how will this be interpreted into the A-share market? This may start with US debt. Recently, there has been a strange phenomenon in the market. although the dollar has risen, as commodities have fallen across the board, US debt has rebounded sharply, and corresponding US bond yields have fallen sharply.
Analysts believe that if you want to look for the supporting direction of A-shares, it must be US debt.
First of all, US bond yields continued to rise in the early period, and formed a rare upside-down with Chinese Treasury yields. To some extent, this will impose some constraints on China’s monetary policy. As Treasury yields pull back, the upside-down has continued to narrow.
Secondly, from the correlation between US debt yield and A-share growth stocks, there is a high negative correlation. In other words, when US bond yields rise, the valuations of A-share growth stocks are often suppressed; otherwise, it helps to improve the valuations of growth stocks. Therefore, as US bond yields fall, it may be conducive to the interpretation of A-share growth stocks.
Third, it should also be noted that there may be two expectations for the fall in US bond yields: inflation peaking and risk aversion. From the perspective of the status of the global supply chain, the peak of inflation and the fall in commodities are very helpful to reduce the cost of Chinese manufacturing, which is conducive to higher valuations of growth stocks dominated by manufacturing. However, if funds enter the government bond market out of risk aversion, it may affect the interpretation of growth stocks emotionally.