随着中国劳动力成本的上升，越南以廉价劳动力优势吸引了耐克、阿迪、优衣库等劳动密集型产业的转移，再加上欧美对越南的低关税和越南本土的税收优惠政策，吸引了许多外商投资建厂。
借助人口红利、关税和税收优惠等优势，这些年越南经济确实发展很快。据世界经济展望，在2010-2021年期间，越南以5.99%的平均经济增速位居第14名，虽然比不上中国的7.24%，但这个增速已经把很多国家甩在了后头。
经济飞速发展的越南，股价和房价也猛涨。过去10年里，胡志明指数从400点左右暴涨至如今的1340点附近，足足翻了三倍多。尤其是2020年越南疫情好转，防疫措施放开后，越南股市迎来一波暴击，涨幅跑赢全球90%的市场指数。
暴涨的不只有股市，还有越南的房价。今年4月，越南经济中心胡志明市的楼盘商品房每平米均价达到惊人的3300美元（约2.18万元人民币），同比增长27%，创近十年新高；首都河内的住宅均价也同比大涨20%以上。
高速发展的经济，飞涨的股价和房价，展现出越南繁华的一面，但这并不是全部真相。
李嘉诚投资越南，兴许是看中了越南城市化过程中的房地产发展机遇。当初李嘉诚就是在2010年左右我国大陆房地产高速发展时，带着雄厚的资本进入，几年后，预感到内地房地产可能会出现瓶颈，就套现离场了。
为了刺激被疫情重创的经济，今年1月，越南通过了高达350万亿越盾（约合152.1亿美元）的经济刺激政策，其中将近三分之一用于投资基建，想走基建拉动城市化发展之路。有种抄中国2008年的“4万亿”刺激经济作业的感觉。
从历史经验来看，往往是资本赚得盆满钵满后走了，留下炒高的房价给当地人自己承担。胡志明市目前的房价收入比就已经够让普通市民绝望了，以后更不用说。
此外，虽然今年一季度越南出口额超过了深圳，但深圳的贸易顺差却是越南的7倍以上。今年一季度越南货物出口额891亿美元，减去同期876.4亿美元的进口额之后，贸易顺差仅14.6亿美元（约97.3亿元）。同期深圳出口额4076.6亿元，进口额3328.2亿元，贸易顺差为748.4亿元。
从GDP数据来看，越南不仅远不如深圳，还赶不上广西。2021年，越南GDP为3626亿美元（约24000亿元），人均GDP约3700美元（2.4万元左右）；深圳GDP为30664亿元；广西省为24740亿元，人均GDP为4.9万元。可见，去年广西省的GDP比越南高，而且人均GDP是越南的两倍多。
从以上数据不难看出，越南其实没许多人想象中的那么好，深圳也没想象中那么差。
更何况，越南是个人口将近一亿的国家，而深圳只是个人口1700多万的中国副省级城市，实在没什么可比性。
而这些年越南制造业的高速发展，也不是因为自身技术有多厉害，竞争力有多强大，而是刚好赶上了产业转移的风口，又恰巧具备低成本的优势，才吸引了劳动密集型产业的转移。
01 产业转移的受益者
近几十年来，全球产业链发生过几次大转移。
在1960年前后，美国、日本、德国等发达国家在国内产业饱和之后，为了降低生产成本，逐渐将劳动密集型产业向韩国、新加坡、中国台湾和香港转移，这几个地方承接产业转移后，工业化进程不断加快，经济飞速发展，一跃成为“亚洲四小龙”。
随着“亚洲四小龙”的产业升级，在1980年以后，又陆续把劳动密集型和高耗能产业转移到泰国、菲律宾、马来西亚、印尼、中国沿海等地。随着中国劳动力成本的上升与产业升级的加快，一些附加值较低的制造业就逐渐转移到了越南。
越南的工业能发展起来，靠的就是产业转移和外商投资。2015年以来，越南70%以上的出口额由外资企业贡献，且越南外资企业出口额增速远高于本土企业。
从进出口结构看，越南主要从中国、韩国等国家进口原材料、零部件和生产设备，完成组装加工后，再把产品出口到美国、欧盟等地。
越南有33%的进口总额来自中国大陆，主要是纺织、皮革材料、机械设备、电话、手机及零件等产品。除了中国大陆外，越南还向韩国、日本、中国台湾、美国等地进口产品。
越南最大的买家是美国，约占出口总额的29%，出口美国的产品中木材及制品、纺织服装、机械设备占比均超过40%。除美国外，中国、韩国、日本也是越南的主要出口对象。
越南目前的工业发展模式类似于30年前中国沿海地区的来料加工厂，依靠廉价劳动力赚取产业链“微笑曲线”中组装的那部分钱，利润空间很小，而利润空间大的研发、设计、品牌、销售等环节的钱却无法企及，因为越南既没有技术，也没有市场，有的只是廉价劳动力。
人口红利是吸引劳动密集型产业转移的关键。越南人口将近1亿，2017年越南的人口中位数年龄仅30.5岁，普通工资只有中国的三分之一。年轻人多、平均收入低是越南发展加工制造业的重要优势。
为了招商引资，越南给了企业很多优惠政策，越南财政部2016年提交的草案显示，2017-2020年，企业所得税税率由此前的20%下调至17%，且年营业额不超过1000 亿越南盾的企业可享受免税优惠。再加上欧美国家给越南的低关税，进一步降低了企业的出口成本。
较低的劳动力、租金成本，叠加关税和税收上的优惠，让越南承接了一部分中国沿海等地的劳动密集型产业转移，制造业得以飞速发展。
02 距离“世界工厂”有多远？
越南承接的产业转移确实对中国的一些出口产品形成了替代，但基本是家具、轮胎等技术含量低的产品。
据贸易数据公司Panjiva，家得宝、宜家家居等零售商从中国进口家具减少13.5%，从越南进口攀升37.2%；汽车轮胎进口方面，美国从中国进口减少28.6%，从越南进口暴增141.7%。
真正受越南影响的是那些想承接沿海低端制造业转移的内陆省份，因为许多加工制造业没有转移到内陆省份，而是去了越南。今年一季度，越南的外资总额为108亿美元，同比增长86.2%，其中有一半来自中国。
但这并不能撼动中国“世界工厂”的地位，因为中国的制造业竞争力已升至全球第二，仅次于德国。2021年4月，联合国工业发展组织数据显示，中国的制造业竞争力已由2012年的全球第五升至第二。中国完成了将近4万亿美元行业GDP，是制造业规模最大的国家，汽车、手机、电脑、洗衣机、空调、彩电、冰箱、钢铁等多项产品的产量都稳居全球第一。
而越南承接的产业基本是没啥技术含量的劳动密集型产业，虽然对想承接沿海低端制造业转移的内陆省份造成了一定影响，但越南既没有高端制造业，也没有重工业，更无法像中国一样建立全产业链网络，这样的越南对想要产业升级的中国来说，更多的是产业互补关系。
更何况，越南的人口和税收优势也无法一直持续下去。随着越来越多外商在越南投资建厂，当地的劳动力和租金等成本都在快速提高。有调查显示，今年越南工厂员工月平均工资在2200元至2400元，企业普遍预计7年后，越南劳动力成本将与我国国内持平。租金方面，胡志明市周边省份的工业园区租金已经从2015年的每亩30美元涨至如今的100美元，翻了好几倍。
欧美对越南的关税优惠也面临着被取消的风险，毕竟决定权在人家手里。早在2020年，美国就对越南木材和汇率相关政策发起过301调查，可见要对越南进行关税制裁也是分分钟的事。
目前的情况是，越南的人口和租金成本在上升，一旦关税优势也失去，那么越南制造业将面临很大的挑战。
03 下一个泰国？
越南虽然无法取代中国成为新的“世界工厂”，但成为下一个泰国还是有希望的。
作为中国的邻邦，越南跟随中国的步伐，在2006年出台了《投资法》，取消了之前诸多对外商的限制，随后加入WTO，正式融入全球贸易体系，对外贸易发展迅猛，经济也增长很快。
2000- 2020年的20年间，越南的GDP翻了8倍以上。人均GDP也从1990年的96美元，猛涨至去年的3700美元附近。
按照阮春福的目标，到2030年，越南要成为高收入国家，人均收入达到18000美元；到2045年，成为繁荣稳定的发达国家。
这个目标不可谓不宏大，但在短短几十年内，越南要想成为日本、韩国那样的发达国家，简直比登天还难。但如果运气好的话，达到泰国的水平还是有可能的，也有越南经济学家把泰国作为他们的发展目标。
越南和泰国都是全球主要稻米出口国，热带水果也很多，可以继续走农产品出口创汇的路线。第三产业方面，越南拥有狭长的海岸线和良好的冬季旅游资源，可以像泰国一样发展旅游业。
工业方面，越南以劳动密集型轻工业为主，与泰国等东南亚国家同质化较严重，等劳动成本上升到泰国的水平，那么相比其他东南亚国家也没优势了，想要继续往上走非常难。
长期来看，越南倒是可以学韩国和日本，在纺织、汽车、电子等领域选择几个主导产业重点发展，建立相应的产业链和配套网络。
但这需要长期积累，而且在日益激烈的全球竞争环境下，后来者越南想要成功困难重重。
此外，在大量举债发展经济的过程中，一旦遇上美联储加息造成的全球流动性紧缩就非常危险。泰国就是活生生的例子，想当年成功抓住第二波产业转移的泰国，经济发展刚有起色，就在美联储加息引爆的1997年亚洲金融危机中被无情收割了。如今美联储加息的镰刀已高高举起，家底薄的越南能否承受得住还是个问题。
IMF和一些华尔街大银行认为，美联储收紧政策的风险正利用松紧美元周期转嫁给脆弱和贫穷国家，在外部债务激升与外汇储备倒挂影响下，土耳其、斯里兰卡、越南、巴西、阿根廷等脆弱模式的国家将面临融资成本抬升、债务利息加大的困境。
不可否认，越南这些年真的在很努力的发展经济，工业化和出口也有了起色，但要完成从一个穷国到富国的逆袭是件无比艰难的事，中间面临的陷阱非常多，越南如果能侥幸突围，赶上泰国还是有可能的。
With the rise of labor costs in China, Vietnam has attracted the transfer of labor-intensive industries such as Nike, Adi, Uniqlo and other labor-intensive industries with the advantage of cheap labor, coupled with the low tariffs on Vietnam and the preferential tax policies in Europe and the United States. attracted a lot of foreign investment to build factories.
借助Demographic dividendAdvantages such as tariffs and tax preferencesVietnam’s economy has indeed developed rapidly in recent years. According to the World Economic Outlook, Vietnam ranked 14th with an average economic growth rate of 5.99% between 2010 and 2021, although not compared with China’s 7.24%, but that growth has lagged behind many countries.
In Vietnam, where its economy is booming, stock prices and house prices have also soared.In the past decade, the Ho Chi Minh Index has more than tripled from around 400 to around 1340 today. In particular, after the epidemic in Vietnam improved in 2020 and epidemic prevention measures were liberalized, the Vietnamese stock market ushered in a wave of shock, which outperformed the global market index of 90%.
It is not only the stock market that has skyrocketed, but also house prices in Vietnam. In April, the average price of commercial housing in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam’s economic center, reached a staggering $3300 (about 21800 yuan) per square meter, up 27% from a year earlier and the highest in nearly a decade, while average residential prices in Hanoi, the capital, also soared more than 20% from a year earlier.
The fast-growing economy, soaring stock prices and house prices show the prosperous side of Vietnam, but this is not the whole truth.
Li Ka-shing’s investment in Vietnam may have taken a fancy to the real estate development opportunities in the process of urbanization in Vietnam. At the beginning, Li Ka-shing entered with abundant capital during the rapid development of real estate in mainland China around 2010. a few years later, he cashed out after a premonition that there might be a bottleneck in the mainland real estate.
In order to stimulate the economy hit hard by the epidemic, in January this year, Vietnam passed an economic stimulus policy of up to 350 trillion Vietnamese dong (US $15.21 billion), of which nearly 1/3 was used to invest in infrastructure, hoping to take the road of infrastructure-driven urbanization. There is a sense of copying China’s 2008 “4 trillion” to stimulate economic operations.
From the perspective of historical experience, it is often the capital that has made a lot of money and left, leaving the speculative housing prices to the local people to bear. The current price-to-income ratio in Ho Chi Minh City is enough to make ordinary citizens desperate, let alone in the future.
In addition, although Vietnam’s exports exceeded that of Shenzhen in the first quarter of this year, Shenzhen’s trade surplus was more than seven times that of Vietnam. Vietnam’s exports of goods totaled US $89.1 billion in the first quarter of this year, with a trade surplus of only US $1.46 billion (about 9.73 billion yuan) after deducting imports of US $87.64 billion in the same period. In the same period, Shenzhen’s exports totaled 407.66 billion yuan and imports totaled 332.82 billion yuan, with a trade surplus of 74.84 billion yuan.
From GDPAccording to the data, Vietnam not only lags far behind Shenzhen, but also lags behind Guangxi.. In 2021, Vietnam’s GDP is 362.6 billion US dollars (about 2.4 trillion yuan), per capita GDP is about 3700 US dollars (24000 yuan); Shenzhen GDP is 3.0664 trillion yuan; Guangxi Province is 2.474 trillion yuan, per capita GDP is 49, 000 yuan. It can be seen that last year, the GDP of Guangxi Province was higher than that of Vietnam, and the per capita GDP was more than twice that of Vietnam.
From the above data, it is not difficult to see that Vietnam is not as good as many people think, and Shenzhen is not as bad as many people think.
What’s more, Vietnam is a country with a population of nearly 100 million, while Shenzhen is only a Chinese vice-provincial city with a population of more than 17 million.
And the rapid development of Vietnam’s manufacturing industry in recent years is not because of its strong technology and competitiveness, butIt happens to catch up with the tuyere of industrial transfer, and happens to have the advantage of low cost, which attracts the transfer of labor-intensive industries.
01 beneficiaries of industrial transfer
In recent decades, several major shifts have taken place in the global industrial chain.
Around 1960, after the domestic industries were saturated in the United States, Japan, Germany and other developed countries, in order to reduce production costs, labor-intensive industries were gradually transferred to South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong. after these places undertake the industrial transfer, the process of industrialization is accelerating, and the economy is developing rapidly, which has become the “four Little Dragons of Asia”.
With the industrial upgrading of the “four Little Dragons of Asia”, labor-intensive and energy-intensive industries have been transferred to Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, China and other places since 1980. With the rise of labor costs and the acceleration of industrial upgrading in China, some manufacturing industries with low added value have been gradually transferred to Vietnam.
The development of Vietnam’s industry depends on industrial transfer and foreign investment. Since 2015, more than 70% of Vietnam’s exports have been contributed by foreign-funded enterprises, and the growth rate of Vietnamese foreign-funded enterprises’ exports is much higher than that of local enterprises.
From the perspective of import and export structureVietnam mainly imports raw materials, parts and production equipment from China, South Korea and other countries. after assembly and processing, Vietnam exports its products to the United States, the European Union and other places..
33 per cent of Vietnam’s total imports come from Chinese mainland, mainly textiles, leather materials, machinery and equipment, telephones, mobile phones and spare parts. In addition to Chinese mainland, Vietnam also imports products from South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, the United States and other places.
Vietnam’s largest buyer is the United States, accounting for about 29 percent of total exports, and wood and products, textiles and clothing, machinery and equipment all account for more than 40 percent of products exported to the United States. In addition to the United States, China, South Korea and Japan are also the main export targets of Vietnam.
The current industrial development model in Vietnam is similar to the processing plants in China’s coastal areas 30 years ago. It relies on cheap labor to earn the money assembled in the “smile curve” of the industrial chain. The profit margin is very small, but the money in R & D, design, brand, sales and other links with large profit space is out of reach.Because Vietnam has neither technology nor market, there is only cheap labor.
Demographic dividendIt is the key to attract the transfer of labor-intensive industries. Vietnam has a population of nearly 100m. In 2017, the median age of Vietnam’s population was only 30.5 years old, and the average wage was only 1/3 of that in China. A large number of young people and low average income are important advantages for the development of processing manufacturing in Vietnam.
In order to attract investment, Vietnam has given a lot of preferential policies to enterprises. According to a draft submitted by the Vietnamese Ministry of Finance in 2017, the corporate income tax rate was reduced from 20% to 17% between 2016 and 2020. And enterprises with an annual turnover of no more than 100 billion dong can enjoy tax exemption. Coupled with the low tariffs imposed on Vietnam by European and American countries, the export costs of enterprises have been further reduced.
Lower labor and rental costs, superimposed tariffs and tax concessions have enabled Vietnam to undertake the transfer of labor-intensive industries in China’s coastal areas and other places, and the manufacturing industry has developed rapidly.
How far is it from the factory of the world?
The industrial transfer undertaken by Vietnam has indeed replaced some of China’s export products, but they are basically low-tech products such as furniture and tires.
Imports of furniture from China by retailers such as Home Depot and Ikea fell 13.5 per cent, while imports from Vietnam rose 37.2 per cent, while imports of car tyres fell 28.6 per cent from China and surged 141.7 per cent from Vietnam, according to Panjiva, a trade data company.
Those who are really affected by Vietnam are the inland provinces that want to undertake the transfer of low-end coastal manufacturing.Because many of the manufacturing industries have not been transferred to inland provinces, but to Vietnam..In the first quarter of this year, Vietnam’s foreign investment totaled US $10.8 billion, an increase of 86.2% over the same period last year, half of which came from China.
But this does not shake China’s status as the “factory of the world”, becauseChina’s manufacturing competitiveness has risen to the second place in the world, after Germany.In April 2021, data from the United Nations Industrial Development Organization showed that China’s manufacturing competitiveness had risen from the fifth in the world in 2012 to the second. China has completed nearly US $4 trillion in industrial GDP, making it the largest manufacturing country, with the world’s largest output of cars, mobile phones, computers, washing machines, air conditioners, color TV sets, refrigerators, steel and other products.
On the other hand, the industries undertaken by Vietnam are basically labor-intensive industries with little technical content, and although it has had a certain impact on the inland provinces that want to undertake the transfer of low-end manufacturing along the coast, Vietnam has neither high-end manufacturing nor heavy industry. what’s more, it is impossible to establish a full-industry chain network like China. For China, which wants industrial upgrading, it is more about industrial complementarity.
What’s more, Vietnam’s demographic and tax advantages cannot be sustained forever. As more and more foreign businessmen invest and build factories in VietnamLocallabour forceAnd rent, etc.CostAre improving rapidly.. A survey shows that the average monthly salary of factory workers in Vietnam this year ranges from 2200 yuan to 2400 yuan, and enterprises generally expect that Vietnam’s labor costs will be the same as those in China in seven years’ time. In terms of rent, the rent of industrial parks in the provinces around Ho Chi Minh City has risen several times from $30 per acre in 2015 to $100 today.
The tariff preferences of Europe and the United States to Vietnam also face the risk of being cancelled, after all, the decision is in the hands of others. As early as 2020, the United States launched a 301 investigation into Vietnam’s timber and exchange rate-related policies, which shows that it is a matter of minutes to impose tariff sanctions on Vietnam.
The current situation is that Vietnam’s population and rental costs are rising, and once the tariff advantage is lost, then Vietnam’s manufacturing industry will face great challenges.
03 the next Thailand?
Although Vietnam cannot replace China as the new “factory of the world”, there is hope that it will become the next Thailand.
As a neighbor of China, Vietnam, following the pace of China, issued the Investment Law in 2006, abolished many previous restrictions on foreign investors, and then joined the WTO, formally integrated into the global trading system, with rapid foreign trade and rapid economic growth.
In the 20 years from 2000 to 2020, Vietnam’s GDP increased more than eightfold. Per capita GDP also soared from $96 in 1990 to around $3700 last year.
According to Nguyen Chun Phu’s goal, Vietnam wants to become a high-income country with a per capita income of US $18000 by 2030 and a prosperous and stable developed country by 2045.
This goal is not ambitious, butIn just a few decades, it is almost impossible for Vietnam to become a developed country like Japan and South Korea. But with luck, it is possible to reach the level of Thailand.There are also Vietnamese economists who regard Thailand as their development goal.
Vietnam and Thailand are both major rice exporters in the world, and there are also a lot of tropical fruits, so they can continue to earn foreign exchange through agricultural exports. In terms of the tertiary industry, Vietnam has a long and narrow coastline and good winter tourism resources, which can develop tourism like Thailand.
In terms of industry, Vietnam is mainly labor-intensive light industry, which is more homogenized with Thailand and other Southeast Asian countries. When labor costs rise to the level of Thailand, then there is no advantage compared with other Southeast Asian countries, so it is very difficult to continue to move up.
In the long run, Vietnam can learn from South Korea and Japan, choose several leading industries in textile, automobile, electronics and other fields to focus on development, and establish corresponding industrial chains and supporting networks.
But this requires long-term accumulation, and in an increasingly competitive global environment, it is difficult for newcomers Vietnam to succeed.
In addition, in the process of borrowing heavily to develop the economy,The global liquidity crunch caused by the Fed’s rate hike is very dangerous.Thailand is a living example. Thailand, which successfully seized the second wave of industrial transfer, was mercilessly harvested in the 1997 Asian financial crisis triggered by the Fed’s interest rate hike. Now that the sickle of the Fed raising interest rates has been raised high, it is still a question whether Vietnam, which has a poor family, can withstand it.
IMF and some big Wall Street banks believe that the risk of Fed tightening is using the tightening dollar cycle to pass on to fragile and poor countries.Under the influence of the sharp rise in external debt and the upside-down of foreign exchange reserves, countries with fragile models such as Turkey, Sri Lanka, Vietnam, Brazil and Argentina will face the dilemma of rising financing costs and increasing interest on their debts..
It is undeniable that Vietnam has been working very hard to develop its economy in recent years, and its industrialization and exports have also improved, but it is extremely difficult to complete the counterattack from a poor country to a rich country, and there are many traps. If Vietnam can get away with it, it is still possible to catch up with Thailand.
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