Instead of talking to the old man about everything, Chinese bidders seem to value the influence behind the name “Buffett”.
Now, Buffett lunch has come to an end. At the end of April, the charity Glide said that the Buffett lunch, which had been on hold for two years, would be held again, but it would also be the last time, and the reason for the suspension was unclear.
Buffett has a large number of followers in China. Goldman Sachs once had such a statistic: about 2 million people around the world are Buffett followers, 300000 of whom are from China. People worship Buffett’s investment myth and want to learn something from the Don’s half-life investment experience.
But today, there was a wave of Internet companies going public, and investors achieved a hundredfold and thousandfold return on investment in a decade, and then the price of Bitcoin once rose to $60,000, and the virtual industry’s “virtual fire” continued to heat up.Buffett’s “long-term doctrine” and “value investment” seem to be increasingly unable to meet people’s ambitions and desires.
In addition to lunch, Buffett and his partner Munger continue the tradition of answering questions from investors and the media around the world at Berkshire Hathaway’s annual shareholder meeting. But the number of people who can listen to the advice of the two old men seems to be decreasing.
01 Pilgrimage “Buffett”
Every year, early May is the busiest time in the central American city of Omaha.
Buffett and Munger will appear together on the first Saturday of the month to answer questions from investors and media around the world. This is Berkshire Hathaway’s shareholder meeting, a tradition that has been going on for more than half a century, and now both old men are nearly 100 years old.
Berkshire Hathaway shareholders’ meeting in May 2022
Every year, there are almost 40, 000 participants, of whom about 4000 are Chinese. Many people regard attending the meeting in Omaha as a “pilgrimage”, while Buffett is called “the oracle of Omaha”. In China, Buffett has a more real name-“stock god”.
The worship of Buffett by Chinese investors stems from the investment myth he created.
Since Buffett joined Berkshire, the company’s share price has risen 36000-fold in the 57 years since 1965 and now has a market capitalization of $704.6 billion, or 4.7 trillion yuan, equivalent to more than two Maotai. It ranks sixth in US stocks, second only to Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Tesla.
Buffett has always owned 39% of the company, and he is the only millionaire who has made a fortune of hundreds of billions of dollars through investment.
It is based on the worship of wealth that Chinese investors are particularly keen on “Buffett lunch”.
The first Chinese to film Buffett lunch was Duan Yongping.
It was in 2006, when Duan Yongping had divided his former step by step into three, two of which are now OPPO and vivo, and he chose to retire to the United States to invest. Before meeting Buffett, he had created the myth of “100 times the return on investing in NetEase”.
Duan Yongping claimed that in the process of reading and studying, he read Buffett’s idea of stock investment, which had a deep influence on him. For that lunch, Duan Yongping admitted that he only bid to pay homage to his investment idol and wanted to report his learning achievements to Buffett.
For Duan Yongping, people are interested in talking about his “disciples”.
At that lunch, Duan Yongping went to dinner with a young man named Huang Zheng. And this young man later, under pressure from the two giants Alibaba and JD.com to carve up the e-commerce market, founded pinduoduo, set a record for the development of the fastest e-commerce platform with a low-price strategy, and brought pinduoduo to Nasdaq in just three years.
Vivo and OPPO, which are separated from BBG, also occupy half of the domestic mobile phone market. With the rapid development of vivo and OPPO in Southeast Asia, extreme Rabbit Express is also growing rapidly in the “Ov” distribution system. Li Jie, founder of Polar Rabbit, once worked as an executive at Bubugao, and also “learned” Duan Yongping.
By 2020, Ji Rabbit will enter the domestic market and be deeply bound with pinduoduo. After the acquisition of Best Express, according to Huachuang Securities, Ji Rabbit won 15.4% of the market share in China’s express market.
From smartphones, e-commerce, logistics. Duan Yongping’s “disciples” weave a complete set of new economic industrial chain.
A few days ago, Duan Yongping revealed on the social platform that he met Buffett and Munger at dinner. Buffett introduced him to Munger, saying that Duan Yongping sold similar mobile phones to Apple, and that he might not have bought Apple without Duan Yongping. Duan Yongping was flattered by such praise.
In terms of investment, Duan Yongping seems to have really become the “Chinese spokesman” of Buffett’s value investment concept.
And Duan Yongping always stressed that he would not invest in industries he did not understand, nor would he make short-term investments. Over the past decade, Duan Yongping has taken a heavy position in Apple and Maotai, and the rise in the share prices of Apple and Maotai also proves his choice.
Duan Yongping also often expresses his investment ideas to the outside world. “the value of the company depends on the discount of the total profits in the company’s life cycle,” he said in a reply to fans. Good companies have strong vitality and generally live well and for a long time. The stock market is a weighing device in the long run, and it will reflect the value of the company sooner or later. “
This is in line with Buffett’s philosophy, but few people really can withstand loneliness and temptation.
02 “Casino” doesn’t have Buffett.
Buffett’s concept of value investment, in a nutshell, is “invest what you know”, “understand its value”, “the difference between the future value of the stock and the current stock price is the margin of safety”, “decide to buy the stock based on the expectation of holding for ten years”.
According to public reports, BYD is the first company that Buffett has invested in China. Buffett acquired BYD in 2008. According to the annual report, Buffett has made 32 times his investment in BYD, but did not sell a single share until 2021.
But few investors have done the same. People tend to be impatient and few people can hold a stock for a long time.
There is a view that many people’s focus on stock investment is divorced from the operating conditions of the enterprise itself, but entangled in gambling probability and mathematical calculation, as well as the study of various moving averages.
As general manager of the innocent China growth Investment Fund, Zhao Danyang bought Buffett’s lunch for $2.11 million in 2008.
Zhao Danyang (left) once snapped Buffett’s lunch for $2.11 million.
People often talk about Zhao Danyang recommending “Wumart Business” stocks to Buffett at lunch. By the time Zhao Danyang returned home, Wumart’s share price had risen nearly 24%, with a floating profit of 14 million US dollars. It was after that that Buffett laid down the rule: don’t talk about stocks at the dinner table, and the habit continues to this day.
But Zhao Danyang may be the majority who can’t resist temptation.
In 2014, Zhao Danyang chose to return to A-shares and did hit the bottom of a seven-year bull market; the Shanghai index hit a high of 5178 again in June 2015. But after the collapse after June, Zhao Danyang failed to get out in time. Judging from the annual results in 2015, the returns of the two domestic funds owned by Zhi Zixin were-12.07% and-3.04% respectively, outperforming the 9.41% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index over the same period. Zhao Danyang said that in the 2016 “letter to investors”, the future investment will gradually shift from individual stock selection to global macro allocation.
For investment, Zhao Danyang puts more emphasis on “cycle” and “general trend”. In a speech in 2017, Zhao Danyang repeatedly stressed, “in life, you need to know when, where and what to do.” Put aside this thing, everything left, if you say value investment, that is bullshit. “
But Buffett’s view is that“We will never buy [stocks] based on how the stock market will go. We have never understood a deep economic point of view. We can’t pick the timing of the market without error. “
This may also determine that Zhao Danyang does not follow a similar investment path to Buffett, but it has nothing to do with right or wrong-last year, the fund products issued by Zhao Danyang, the “godfather of private equity”, performed well, with both funds earning more than 50 per cent in the first 11 months.
It also means that Buffett is not alone in the methodology of making money on investments.
Another Chinese businessman, Zhu Ye, founder of God Entertainment, also appeared on Buffett’s lunch. In 2015, he snapped up lunch for a whopping $2.34 million.
Zhu Ye had lunch with Buffett. The picture is from: Internet.
Prior to this, his company, God Entertainment, backdoor Corona Wood went public. As a game enterprise, its masterpieces include Dawn, Tank, arrogant Sword and other games, as well as investing in movies and TV dramas such as remaining Sin, General Night, and the Republic of China.
It’s hard to say what Zhu Ye learned at this lunch. In the following three years, God Entertainment has made great strides, acquiring a stake in Ruyi Pictures and acquiring game companies such as Lei Shang and Le play. In 2018 alone, God Entertainment launched more than 10 mergers and acquisitions worth nearly 10 billion yuan.
But it has gone too far and the resulting debt has soared. In 2018, affected by the freezing of game version numbers, the regulation of tax order in the film and television industry, restrictions on specific themes and other regulatory policy adjustments, the operating performance of God Entertainment declined sharply and fell into a serious debt crisis and business crisis.
At present, Zhu Ye’s team has already withdrawn from Gods Entertainment as a whole.
Zhu Ye, who is not good at investing, did say to Buffett at lunch: & quot; I am good in industry, but not in stocks. In those three years of quot;, he finally lost the bet.
And the “gambling” of stock markets around the world is also rising. After the outbreak, as the Fed continued to release excess liquidity, U. S. stocks continued to rise for two years, with a flood of hot money pouring into the stock market. After April, volatility in U. S. stocks has also intensified.
Buffett criticized: “many large American companies seem to have become bargaining chips on the gambling table.” the stock market is like a casino, where everyone gambles. This phenomenon is particularly obvious in the past two years and is also driven by Wall Street.
Casinos, on the other hand, never need Buffett.
03 = = sync, corrected by elderman = =The farce ends.
In the movie “the richest man in Xihong City”, Wang Duoyu paid a lot of money for the lunch of the stock god, but the stock god effect caused the sunset stocks he bought to rise across the board and made money instead.
It’s just a joke, a film and television clip, but life is often more wonderful than movies and TV dramas. Whether Zhao Danyang recommended shares to Buffett, leading to a short-term rise in Wumart shares, or Zhu Ye attended lunch after the god entertainment shares soared, all illustrate this point.
But it was Sun Yuchen of the post-90s who really turned Buffett lunch into a farce.
In countless interviews, Sun Yuchen never concealed his strong desire for fame and wealth.
When he was young, he wanted to be the next Han Han, so he carefully studied the writing style of the first prize in previous new concept composition competitions in order to cater to the taste of the judges. I have been voting for three years in a row, but there has been no reply. Then in Peking University, he spent four years with a maverick of radical ideas and extreme remarks.
Then he went to study in the United States, where he took courses at Wharton Business School, joined the Investment Association, attended internship interviews with investment banks and fund companies, and began to study virtual currencies.
In an interview with GQ, he described the change in his concept that “entrepreneurs are the core of the rotation of the whole planet, and the more people make money, the more noble they are.” Since then, in his Wechat moments, Jack Ma, Feng Lun and Shi Yuzhu. He shows photos of himself with business leaders all the time.
Behind the name “Sun Yuchen” is almost a collection of opportunism and successful chicken soup.
He did realize the freedom of wealth, and the wave field TRON he founded rose rapidly. Sun Yuchen, who held 6 billion wave field coins, harvested leeks and cashed out 12 billion yuan at one time.
Regulators have issued border control instructions to Sun Yuchen since June 2018 on suspicion of illegal fund-raising, Caixin reported. Sun Yuchen has never returned to China since January 2019.
But even so,There is still no shortage of Sun Yuchen’s fans in China. In him, people saw the “illusion” of getting rich overnight.
The first thing that Sun Yuchen wants to challenge is that set of mature and rational investment methodology.
In 2019, Sun Yuchen bid nearly $4.57 million for Buffett’s charity luncheon, but shelved it on the grounds that Sun Yuchen had a “sudden kidney stone”.
Sun Yuchen announced in 2020, and completed the lunch appointment with Buffett.
A screenshot of Sun Yuchen’s conversation shows that Sun Yuchen said: “this wave has taught the whole financial world a lesson.” Everyone thinks that I shoot lunch in order to attend classes and make money. No, I can make money without eating. ” “making money is the most important thing. Everyone thinks that Buffett gives me a lesson for lunch, so I will first give a lesson to Ba Lao before eating.”
Buffett stressed again at a recent shareholder meeting that “Bitcoin is not a productive asset. Its value depends on how much the next person pays the last person who owns it.” The money moves from one person to another, and they just change the owner. But in essence, if an asset is to be valuable, it must be able to deliver productivity and deliver its value. “
Munger also said“in my life, I’ve tried to avoid things that are stupid, evil and make me look worse than others. I think bitcoin takes up all three o’clock.” Call it stupid, because its value will return to zero, call it evil, because it weakens the sound American financial system.
But Buffett may have been looking forward to meeting Sun Yuchen to hear how the young man who made a lot of money in virtual currencies understood Bitcoin.
The high price of virtual assets is also challenging Buffett’s value investment step by step. On cryptocurrency, besides Sun Yuchen, Musk is also a fan of cryptocurrency, and Buffett and Musk talked about it for several rounds.
And the market is never short of speculators. Since last year, there has been another wave of revelry about the meta-universe in the real universe. Under the subdivision track of meta-universe, the NFT market is also growing rapidly. According to market research firm Chainalysis, the market size of NFT will reach at least $26.9 billion in 2021.
In nearly a year, even if do not understand, there are a large number of entrepreneurs and investors have raised the banner of blockchain, meta-universe and NFT.
Buffett is old. Sitting on the Queen of Omaha Center Arena, Buffett, 92, and Munger, 98, answered six hours of media questions, ranging from international politics to oil, the Internet, virtual currency, and so on. Countless times to express their views, views.
But how many of the 40,000 attendees and countless viewers in front of the screen really listened to the bosses’ painstaking efforts?