Yole：中国稀土可以卡住全球电动机供应链的脖子

近日法国知名半导体咨询机构Yole发布报告，认为到2027年，随着重大技术的创新和供应链重组，全球电动机市场将超过130亿美元，如下图：

如今，电力电子技术的主要驱动力之一是汽车电气化。汽车电动机是动力传动系统的一个关键零件，电动机的任何改变都会影响动力传动系统其他部件的特性，如电池和逆变器。

Yole电力电子技术与市场分析师Abdoulaye Ly表示：“四种技术主要用于纯电动汽车的牵引电动机。分别是永磁同步电机、永磁辅助同步磁阻电机、感应电机和电励磁同步电机。如今，永磁同步电动机技术在电动汽车行业得到了广泛应用。由于永磁同步电机在正常速度下的高功率密度和效率，我们预计它在未来几年仍将是主要技术。此外，中国是最大的电动汽车市场，几乎所有中国汽车制造商都在使用永磁同步电动机。”

电动机制造的一个关键点是，永磁同步电机中使用的磁铁是用稀土材料制造的，其精炼厂主要在中国。磁铁占永磁同步电机总成本的40%。如果出现以下情况之一，使用永磁同步电机的非中国汽车制造商可能会受到磁铁短缺或成本波动的严重影响：

考虑到这两种情况，Yole的分析师预计，非中国汽车制造商将通过开发新技术或改进现有的无磁技术来减少对中国稀土材料的依赖。牵引电机市场由三家汽车制造商所主导：特斯拉、比亚迪和大众。

（校对/Carrie）

Nowadays, one of the main driving forces of power electronics technology is automobile electrification. Automobile motor is a key part of the power transmission system. Any change of the motor will affect the characteristics of other parts of the power transmission system, such as batteries and inverters.

Abdoulaye Ly, power electronics technology and market analyst at Yole, said: “the four technologies are mainly used in traction motors for pure electric vehicles. They are permanent magnet synchronous motor, permanent magnet auxiliary synchronous reluctance motor, induction motor and electric excitation synchronous motor. Nowadays, permanent magnet synchronous motor technology has been widely used in the electric vehicle industry. Because of the high power density and efficiency of permanent magnet synchronous motor at normal speed, we expect it to be the main technology in the next few years. In addition, China is the largest market for electric vehicles, and almost all Chinese automakers are using permanent magnet synchronous motors. “

A key point in motor manufacturing is that the magnets used in permanent magnet synchronous motors are made of rare earth materials and their refineries are mainly in China. Magnets account for 40% of the total cost of permanent magnet synchronous motors. Non-Chinese automakers using permanent magnet synchronous motors may be severely affected by magnet shortages or cost fluctuations if one of the following occurs:

Given both scenarios, analysts at Yole expect non-Chinese carmakers to reduce their dependence on Chinese rare earth materials by developing new technologies or improving existing non-magnetic technologies. The traction motor market is dominated by three automakers: Tesla, BYD and Volkswagen.

(proofread / Carrie)