而网友们似乎从中发现了玄机，纷纷把参保减少和裁员挂上了勾。他们认为参保人数减少就代表了裁员人数。
先不考虑网传截图中的参保人数变化是否准确，用参保人数变化对应裁员人数这种方法真的科学吗？
我们不妨来研究下。
看大厂人员变化 当然财报更靠谱
其实关于大厂的员工数量变化，没有什么数据比财报里的更准确。
但是看财报，也应该注意几个问题，一是要想准确反映一段时间的人员变动，财报的间隔就需要尽量短，所以看季度报的对比更有价值，也就是环比。
因为互联网大厂的人员流动是很快的，有进有出，时间段越短反映的人员变化越反映裁员与否。
而网传截图却用了一年的时间间隔，笔者很好奇为什么不直接用一个月或半年的呢？这里先卖个关子。
三言财经发现腾讯、阿里、京东、小米这四家在2021年报和2022年Q1财报中都写上了员工数量。
先说结论，这看起来似乎与我们预料中的不一样。事实上，互联网大厂们的员工数总体上还是一个上升状态。
1、腾讯
财报显示，截至今年3月底，腾讯员工总数为116213名，同比去年同期的89228名，增长了30%左右，环比去年第四季度末的112771名员工，腾讯今年Q1净增员工3442人。
2、阿里
财报显示，截至2022年3月31日，阿里集团员工人数为254941人，较上财季净减员4375人。
3、京东
财报显示，截至2021年12月31日，京东员工总数为385357。而截至2022年3月31日，京东员工总数约390000，环比增长4643人。
4、小米
财报显示，截至2021年12月31日，小米员工有33427人。截至2022年3月31日，小米员工33793，环比增长366人。
不过这里的数据是2021年12月31日到2022年3月31日这三个月的变化，与网传截图的2021年6月1日到2022年6月1日还有所不同。
不过三言财经注意到一个数字，那就是阿里在今年年初3个月的员工数少了4375人，而那张截图一年的参保人数变化也是4375。
是不是有点无巧不成书的感觉。
另外我们再看看教培行业。
比如新东方，6月1日，新东方创始人俞敏洪发布内部信。他表示，2022财年是新东方成立以来，遇到的最艰难的一个年份。在此期间，公司市值下降了90%，员工人数从11万下降到5万。
还有，巅峰时期好未来拥有近10万员工，双减到来之后，好未来开启大裁员。据当时媒体报道，好未来在2021年下半年裁员高达9万人，只留下1万人。
据了解，去年底，好未来内部曾举办一次送别会，当时好未来有2万多名教师离职。
网传截图中新东方的参保人数变化刚好是5万多，而好未来（学而思）去年年底那场2万员工告别会也曾轰动一时。新东方参保人数少了5万，好未来少了2万，看似有可靠证据支撑。
但是别忘了好未来去年是裁了9万人，2万只是年终的其中一波。
看到这里你还会相信那张所谓的参保人数变化表吗？
从参保人数变化看裁员数可行？
参保人数顾名思义是公司员工参加社会保险的数量，与员工数量有一定关联性。
但是二者又不能完全画等号。
首先即使是大厂，也不能保证所有员工都上了社保。举个最近的例子，前几天老乡鸡就被曝出有大量员工没交社保。
还有第三方派遣的员工，本公司也可能不给交社保。
另外一些退休返聘人员也不需要交社保，财务、人事、技术等岗位就经常有返聘。
另外，我们再谈谈查询社保人数变化的可行性问题。
截图说是从天眼查这样的第三方平台查到的参保人数的变化。
但实际操作并没有那么简单，动动手指就能得出上述结论。
首先，因为大厂都是集团化，牵扯的公司众多。一方面去一个一个查所有公司的参保人数不现实。
像腾讯、阿里这样的巨头，旗下的公司无数，哪一家该算到集团名下，这个问题不解决，又如何保证数据的准确性。
另外，一般企业是今年中旬向工商部门提交上年度（一般是截止上年年底12月31日）的年报，其中包括社保信息。
而三言财经查询发现，互联网大厂旗下的公司的最新年报都是2020年，2021年的还没提交，2022年的要到2023年才能看到。
那么截图中所谓的21年和22年的参保人数对比是凭空算出来的？
查社保人数的可行性基本为0，笔者很好奇截图中数据是如何得来的。
从各种数据的巧合上来看，笔者认为截图中的社保变化数量是有意图的伪造。
它要制造一种互联网大厂全部裁员的假象，为了尽可能逼真，选了一些真实存在的数字，比如阿里财报里的4375、新东方和好未来的裁员数。
而在裁员潮的渲染下，很多人没有经过核实便相信了上述数据，因为它有一些确实是已被报道的数据。
而事实上，我们无法精确统计到互联网大厂的社保总人数，更别提变化了。
而事实上，官方在4月份还曾公布过互联网大厂的员工变化情况，结果与所谓的裁员潮也截然不同。
网信办访谈12家互联网大厂
还增加用工近8万人
今年4月8日，鉴于网络上疯传的裁员潮消息，网信办访谈了腾讯阿里京东等12家互联网公司，结果是出乎意料。
经统计，2021年7月到2022年3月中旬，腾讯、阿里巴巴、字节跳动、美团、拼多多、快手、百度、京东、网易、微博、哔哩哔哩、蚂蚁集团等12家企业总离职人数21.68万人，总招聘人数29.59万人，净增用工7.91万人，其中11家企业招聘人数多于离职人数。
12家公司里只有一家招聘人数多于离职人数，增长还是大趋势。
其中，美团公司反映，伴随业务的拓展，公司到店、到家、网约车、骑行等业务线和职能线人员，均有一定程度的增长。去年7月份以来，净增员工1.7万人，今年还将继续推进应届生招聘计划。
据了解，截至2021年底，美团的员工数量达10万人，在2020年底的6.92万人基础上1年新增员工超3万人。
当时微博表示，根据业务发展需要，近期公司对亏损业务进行减员优化，同时扩大与内容相关人员规模，保持其他板块人员稳定，预计今年总员工数量在去年基础上有所增加。
北京字节跳动表示，去年下半年公司裁撤部分业务部门，对一些条线岗位进行优化调整，不过公司也在加大其他方面人员的招聘力度，去年以来总员工数量还有所增加。
百度集团表示，目前公司在自动驾驶、智能交通、机器翻译、飞桨深度学习框架等关键技术领域取得显著优势，员工数量总体稳定。
大厂之所以成为大厂，很大一个原因就是因为它规模够大，员工数够多，比如腾讯、美团、京东这种，员工都超过10万。
所以他们的业务调整一般都会牵扯很广，影响的人也较多。在外界看来就像是一轮裁员潮，但是我们不应该忽视大厂的大基数，在巨大的基数面前，这种变动会显得很小。
当然排除掉教培行业这种特殊情况，我们会发现外界看着裁员潮波涛汹涌，人家员工数还在稳定增长。互联网行业员工年轻化很明显，一代新人换旧人，变化才是互联网最大的不变。
And netizens seem to have found a mystery, one after another linked to the reduction of insurance and layoffs. They believe that the reduction in the number of people insured represents the number of layoffs.
Regardless of whether the change in the number of participants in the screenshot is accurate, is it really scientific to use the change in the number of participants to correspond to the number of layoffs?
We might as well study it.
Looking at the changes in the personnel of large factories, of course, the financial report is more reliable.
In fact, with regard to the changes in the number of employees in large companies, there are no data more accurate than those in the financial statements.
However, if we look at the financial report, we should also pay attention to several problems. First, in order to accurately reflect the personnel changes over a period of time, the interval between the financial statements needs to be as short as possible, so the comparison of quarterly reports is more valuable, that is, month-on-month.
Because the staff flow of large Internet companies is very fast, some in and out, the shorter the period of time, the more the personnel changes reflect layoffs or not.
But the screenshot of the net spread used a year interval, the author is very curious why not directly use a month or half a year? Let’s sell it here.
Sanyan Finance found that Tencent, Ali, JD.com and Xiaomi all wrote down the number of employees in the 2021 report and the 2022 Q1 report.
Let’s start with the conclusion, it doesn’t seem to be what we expected.In fact, the number of employees of Internet companies as a whole is still on the rise.
1. Tencent
According to the financial report, Tencent had 116213 employees as of the end of March, up about 30 per cent from 89228 in the same period last year, compared with 112771 at the end of the fourth quarter of last year. Tencent has a net increase of 3442 employees this year.
2. Ali
According to the financial report, as of March 31, 2022, the number of employees of Ali Group was 254941, a net decrease of 4375 compared with the previous quarter.
3 、 JD.com
The total number of employees of JD.com was 385357 as of December 31, 2021, according to the financial report. As of March 31, 2022, the total number of employees of JD.com was about 390000, an increase of 4643 from the previous month.
4. Xiaomi
As of December 31, 2021, Xiaomi had 33427 employees, according to the financial report. As of March 31, 2022, Xiaomi had 33793 employees, an increase of 366 from the previous month.
However, the data here show the changes in the three months from December 31, 2021 to March 31, 2022, which is different from the online screenshot from June 1, 2021 to June 1, 2022.
However, Sanyan Finance noticed a figure, that is, Ali lost 4375 employees in the three months at the beginning of this year, and the number of insured people in that screenshot changed by 4375 in one year.
Isn’t it a little coincidental?
In addition, let’s take a look at the education industry.
For example, on June 1, New Oriental founder Yu Minhong released an internal letter. He said that the 2022 fiscal year was the most difficult year since the founding of New Oriental. During this period, the company’s market capitalization fell by 90%, and the number of employees fell from 110000 to 50, 000.
In addition, at its peak, the good future has nearly 100000 employees, and after the double reduction comes, the good future will start a large number of layoffs. According to media reports at the time, good Future will cut as many as 90,000 jobs in the second half of 2021, leaving only 10,000.
It is understood that at the end of last year, a farewell party was held inside the good future, when more than 20,000 teachers left.
In the screenshot of the online biography, the number of people insured by New Oriental has changed by just over 50,000, and the farewell party of 20,000 employees at the end of last year also caused a sensation. The number of people insured in New Oriental is less than 50,000 and the good future is less than 20,000, which seems to be supported by reliable evidence.
But don’t forget that 90,000 people were laid off last year, and 20,000 was just one of the waves at the end of the year.
Will you still believe the so-called table of changes in the number of people insured when you see it here?
The number of layoffs is feasible from the change of the number of people insured?
The number of participants, as the name implies, is the number of employees participating in social insurance, which is related to the number of employees.
But the two can not completely draw the equal sign.
First of all, even if it is a big factory, there is no guarantee that all employees are enrolled in social security. To take a recent example, a few days ago, it was exposed that a large number of employees failed to pay social security.
There are also employees sent by third parties, the company may not hand in social security.
In addition, some retirees do not need to hand in social security, and they are often rehired in financial, personnel, technical and other positions.
In addition, let’s talk about the feasibility of inquiring about changes in the number of social security workers.
The screenshot says that it is the change in the number of participants found from a third-party platform like SkyEye.
But the actual operation is not that simple, moving your fingers can draw the above conclusion.
First of all, because big factories are collectivized, there are many companies involved. On the one hand, it is not realistic to check the insured number of all companies one by one.
Giants such as Tencent and Ali have numerous companies, which should be counted in the name of the group, this problem is not solved, and how to ensure the accuracy of the data.
In addition, the general enterprise is in the middle of this year to submit to the department for industry and commerce the annual report of the previous year (usually as of the end of December 31 last year), including social security information.
According to Sanyan Financial Inquiry, the latest annual reports of companies owned by big Internet companies are all in 2020, and those in 2021 have not been submitted yet, and those in 2022 will not be seen until 2023.
So the so-called 21-year and 22-year comparison in the screenshot is calculated out of thin air?
The feasibility of checking the number of social security is basically zero, and the author is very curious about how the data in the screenshot are obtained.
From the coincidence of various data, the author thinks that the number of social security changes in the screenshot is an intentional forgery.
It wants to create the illusion of all layoffs by big Internet companies, and in order to be as realistic as possible, it has chosen some real figures, such as 4375 in Alibaba’s financial report, New Oriental and the number of layoffs in the future.
Under the exaggeration of the wave of layoffs, many people believed the above data without verification, because it had some data that had indeed been reported.
AndIn fact, we can not accurately calculate the total number of social security of Internet companies, let alone changes.
In fact, officials announced changes in employees at big Internet companies in April, which was very different from the so-called wave of layoffs.
The Internet Information Office interviewed 12 big Internet companies
It also increased the number of workers by nearly 80,000.
On April 8 this year, in view of the widespread news of layoffs on the Internet, the Internet Information Office interviewed 12 Internet companies, including Tencent Ali JD.com, and the results were unexpected.
According to statistics, from July 2021 to mid-March 2022, 12 enterprises, including Tencent, Alibaba, Byte Jump, Meituan, pinduoduo, Kuaishou, Baidu, JD.com, NetEase, Weibo, bilibili, Ant Group, etc., had a total turnover of 216800, with a total recruitment of 295900 and a net increase of 79100, of which 11 enterprises hired more people than left.
Only one of the 12 companies has hired more people than left, and the growth is still a big trend.
Among them, Meituan company reflects that with the expansion of business, the company to the store, home, online car-hailing, cycling and other business lines and functional line personnel, have a certain degree of growth. There has been a net increase of 17000 employees since July last year, and the recruitment program for new graduates will continue this year.
It is understood that by the end of 2021, Meituan had 100000 employees, adding more than 30, 000 employees a year, up from 69200 at the end of 2020.
At that time, Weibo said that in the near future, according to the needs of business development, the company has carried out downsizing and optimization of its loss-making business, while expanding the size of content-related personnel to maintain stability in other sectors, and the total number of employees this year is expected to increase from last year.
Beijing byte jump said that in the second half of last year, the company cut some business units and optimized some line posts, but the company is also stepping up recruitment efforts in other areas, and the total number of employees has increased since last year.
Baidu Group said that at present, the company has achieved significant advantages in key technology areas such as autopilot, intelligent transportation, machine translation and flying paddle deep learning framework, and the number of employees is generally stable.
A big reason why a big factory has become a big factory is that it is large enough and has enough employees, such as Tencent, Meituan and JD.com, all with more than 100000 employees.
Therefore, their business adjustment usually involves a wide range of people and affects more people. In the outside world, it looks like a wave of layoffs, but we should not ignore the large base of big companies, in the face of a huge base, this change will appear very small.
Of course, excluding the special situation of the education and training industry, we will find that the outside world is watching the waves of layoffs, and the number of employees is still growing steadily. It is obvious that the employees in the Internet industry are getting younger, and the change is the biggest constant of the Internet when a new generation is replaced by an old one.
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