And netizens seem to have found a mystery, one after another linked to the reduction of insurance and layoffs. They believe that the reduction in the number of people insured represents the number of layoffs.
Regardless of whether the change in the number of participants in the screenshot is accurate, is it really scientific to use the change in the number of participants to correspond to the number of layoffs?
We might as well study it.
Looking at the changes in the personnel of large factories, of course, the financial report is more reliable.
In fact, with regard to the changes in the number of employees in large companies, there are no data more accurate than those in the financial statements.
However, if we look at the financial report, we should also pay attention to several problems. First, in order to accurately reflect the personnel changes over a period of time, the interval between the financial statements needs to be as short as possible, so the comparison of quarterly reports is more valuable, that is, month-on-month.
Because the staff flow of large Internet companies is very fast, some in and out, the shorter the period of time, the more the personnel changes reflect layoffs or not.
But the screenshot of the net spread used a year interval, the author is very curious why not directly use a month or half a year? Let’s sell it here.
Sanyan Finance found that Tencent, Ali, JD.com and Xiaomi all wrote down the number of employees in the 2021 report and the 2022 Q1 report.
Let’s start with the conclusion, it doesn’t seem to be what we expected.In fact, the number of employees of Internet companies as a whole is still on the rise.
According to the financial report, Tencent had 116213 employees as of the end of March, up about 30 per cent from 89228 in the same period last year, compared with 112771 at the end of the fourth quarter of last year. Tencent has a net increase of 3442 employees this year.
According to the financial report, as of March 31, 2022, the number of employees of Ali Group was 254941, a net decrease of 4375 compared with the previous quarter.
3 、 JD.com
The total number of employees of JD.com was 385357 as of December 31, 2021, according to the financial report. As of March 31, 2022, the total number of employees of JD.com was about 390000, an increase of 4643 from the previous month.
As of December 31, 2021, Xiaomi had 33427 employees, according to the financial report. As of March 31, 2022, Xiaomi had 33793 employees, an increase of 366 from the previous month.
However, the data here show the changes in the three months from December 31, 2021 to March 31, 2022, which is different from the online screenshot from June 1, 2021 to June 1, 2022.
However, Sanyan Finance noticed a figure, that is, Ali lost 4375 employees in the three months at the beginning of this year, and the number of insured people in that screenshot changed by 4375 in one year.
Isn’t it a little coincidental?
In addition, let’s take a look at the education industry.
For example, on June 1, New Oriental founder Yu Minhong released an internal letter. He said that the 2022 fiscal year was the most difficult year since the founding of New Oriental. During this period, the company’s market capitalization fell by 90%, and the number of employees fell from 110000 to 50, 000.
In addition, at its peak, the good future has nearly 100000 employees, and after the double reduction comes, the good future will start a large number of layoffs. According to media reports at the time, good Future will cut as many as 90,000 jobs in the second half of 2021, leaving only 10,000.
It is understood that at the end of last year, a farewell party was held inside the good future, when more than 20,000 teachers left.
In the screenshot of the online biography, the number of people insured by New Oriental has changed by just over 50,000, and the farewell party of 20,000 employees at the end of last year also caused a sensation. The number of people insured in New Oriental is less than 50,000 and the good future is less than 20,000, which seems to be supported by reliable evidence.
But don’t forget that 90,000 people were laid off last year, and 20,000 was just one of the waves at the end of the year.
Will you still believe the so-called table of changes in the number of people insured when you see it here?
The number of layoffs is feasible from the change of the number of people insured?
The number of participants, as the name implies, is the number of employees participating in social insurance, which is related to the number of employees.
But the two can not completely draw the equal sign.
First of all, even if it is a big factory, there is no guarantee that all employees are enrolled in social security. To take a recent example, a few days ago, it was exposed that a large number of employees failed to pay social security.
There are also employees sent by third parties, the company may not hand in social security.
In addition, some retirees do not need to hand in social security, and they are often rehired in financial, personnel, technical and other positions.
In addition, let’s talk about the feasibility of inquiring about changes in the number of social security workers.
The screenshot says that it is the change in the number of participants found from a third-party platform like SkyEye.
But the actual operation is not that simple, moving your fingers can draw the above conclusion.
First of all, because big factories are collectivized, there are many companies involved. On the one hand, it is not realistic to check the insured number of all companies one by one.
Giants such as Tencent and Ali have numerous companies, which should be counted in the name of the group, this problem is not solved, and how to ensure the accuracy of the data.
In addition, the general enterprise is in the middle of this year to submit to the department for industry and commerce the annual report of the previous year (usually as of the end of December 31 last year), including social security information.
According to Sanyan Financial Inquiry, the latest annual reports of companies owned by big Internet companies are all in 2020, and those in 2021 have not been submitted yet, and those in 2022 will not be seen until 2023.
So the so-called 21-year and 22-year comparison in the screenshot is calculated out of thin air?
The feasibility of checking the number of social security is basically zero, and the author is very curious about how the data in the screenshot are obtained.
From the coincidence of various data, the author thinks that the number of social security changes in the screenshot is an intentional forgery.
It wants to create the illusion of all layoffs by big Internet companies, and in order to be as realistic as possible, it has chosen some real figures, such as 4375 in Alibaba’s financial report, New Oriental and the number of layoffs in the future.
Under the exaggeration of the wave of layoffs, many people believed the above data without verification, because it had some data that had indeed been reported.
AndIn fact, we can not accurately calculate the total number of social security of Internet companies, let alone changes.
In fact, officials announced changes in employees at big Internet companies in April, which was very different from the so-called wave of layoffs.
The Internet Information Office interviewed 12 big Internet companies
It also increased the number of workers by nearly 80,000.
On April 8 this year, in view of the widespread news of layoffs on the Internet, the Internet Information Office interviewed 12 Internet companies, including Tencent Ali JD.com, and the results were unexpected.
According to statistics, from July 2021 to mid-March 2022, 12 enterprises, including Tencent, Alibaba, Byte Jump, Meituan, pinduoduo, Kuaishou, Baidu, JD.com, NetEase, Weibo, bilibili, Ant Group, etc., had a total turnover of 216800, with a total recruitment of 295900 and a net increase of 79100, of which 11 enterprises hired more people than left.
Only one of the 12 companies has hired more people than left, and the growth is still a big trend.
Among them, Meituan company reflects that with the expansion of business, the company to the store, home, online car-hailing, cycling and other business lines and functional line personnel, have a certain degree of growth. There has been a net increase of 17000 employees since July last year, and the recruitment program for new graduates will continue this year.
It is understood that by the end of 2021, Meituan had 100000 employees, adding more than 30, 000 employees a year, up from 69200 at the end of 2020.
At that time, Weibo said that in the near future, according to the needs of business development, the company has carried out downsizing and optimization of its loss-making business, while expanding the size of content-related personnel to maintain stability in other sectors, and the total number of employees this year is expected to increase from last year.
Beijing byte jump said that in the second half of last year, the company cut some business units and optimized some line posts, but the company is also stepping up recruitment efforts in other areas, and the total number of employees has increased since last year.
Baidu Group said that at present, the company has achieved significant advantages in key technology areas such as autopilot, intelligent transportation, machine translation and flying paddle deep learning framework, and the number of employees is generally stable.
A big reason why a big factory has become a big factory is that it is large enough and has enough employees, such as Tencent, Meituan and JD.com, all with more than 100000 employees.
Therefore, their business adjustment usually involves a wide range of people and affects more people. In the outside world, it looks like a wave of layoffs, but we should not ignore the large base of big companies, in the face of a huge base, this change will appear very small.
Of course, excluding the special situation of the education and training industry, we will find that the outside world is watching the waves of layoffs, and the number of employees is still growing steadily. It is obvious that the employees in the Internet industry are getting younger, and the change is the biggest constant of the Internet when a new generation is replaced by an old one.