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[其他] Why's that company so big? I could do that in a weekend

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少年未老爱已淡薄 发表于 2016-10-3 19:45:26
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Why's that company so big? I could do that in a weekend  I can’t think of a single large software company that doesn’t regularly draw internet comments of the form “What do all the employees do? I could build their product myself.”    Benjamin Pollackand    Jeff Atwoodcalled out people who do that with Stack Overflow. But    Stack Overflow is relatively obviously lean, so the general response is something like “oh, sure maybe Stack Overflow is lean, but FooCorp must really be bloated”. And since most people have relatively little visibility into FooCorp, for any given value of FooCorp, that sounds like a plausible statement. After all, what product could possible require hundreds, or even thousands of engineers?  
  A few years ago, in the wake of the rapgenius SEO controversy, a number of folks called for someone to write a better Google. Alex Clemmer responded that    maybe building a better Google is a non-trivial problem. Considering how much of Google’s $500B market cap comes from search, and how much money has been spent by tens (hundreds?) of competitors in an attempt to capture some of that value, it seems plausible to me that search isn’t a trivial problem. But in the comments on Alex’s posts, multiple people respond and say that Lucene basically does the same thing Google does and that Lucene is poised to surpass Google’s capabilities in the next few years.  
  What would Lucene at Google’s size look like? If we do a naive back of the envelope calculation on what it would take to index a significant fraction of the internet (often estimated to be 1 trillion (T) or 10T documents), we might expect a 1T document index to cost something like $10B. That’s not a feasible startup, so let’s say that instead of trying to index 1T documents, we want to maintain an artisanal search index of 1B documents. Then our cost comes down to $12M/yr. That’s not so bad – plenty of startups burn through more than that every year. While we’re in the VC-funded hypergrowth mode, that’s fine, but once we have a real business, we’ll want to consider trying to save money. At $12M/yr for the index, a 3% performance improvement that lets us trim our costs by 2% is worth $360k/yr. With those kinds of costs, it’s surely worth it to have at least one engineering working full-time on optimization, if not more.  
  Businesses that actually care about turning a profit will spend a lot of time (hence, a lot of engineers) working on optimizing systems, even if an MVP for the system could have been built in a weekend. There’s also a wide body of research that’s found that decreasing latency has a roughly linear effect on revenue over a pretty wide range of latencies and businesses. Businesses should keep adding engineers to work on optimization until the cost of adding an engineering equals the revenue gain plus the cost savings at the margin. This is often many more engineers than people realize.
  And that’s just performance. Features also matter: when I talk to engineers working on basically any product at any company, they’ll often find that there are seemingly trivial individual features that can add integer percentage points to revenue. Just as with performance, people underestimate how many engineers you can add to a product before engineers stop paying for themselves.
  Additionally, features are often much more complex than outsiders realize. If we look at search, how do we make sure that different forms of dates and phone numbers give the same results? How about internationalization? Each language has unique quirks that have to be accounted for. In french, “l’foo” should often match “un foo” and visa versa, but American search engines from the 90s didn’t actually handle that correctly. How about tokenizing Chinese queries, where words don’t have spaces between them, and sentences don’t have unique tokenizations? How about Japanese, where queries can easily contain four different alphabets? How about handling Arabic, which is mostly read right-to-left, except for the bits that are read left-to-right?    And that’s not even the most complicated part of handling Arabic! It’s fine to ignore this stuff for a weekend-project MVP, but ignoring it in a real business means ignoring the majority of the market! Some of these are handled ok by open source projects, but many of the problems involve open research problems.  
  There’s also security! If you don’t “bloat” your company by hiring security people, you’ll end up like hotmail or yahoo, where your product is better known for how often it’s hacked than for any of its other features.
  Everything we’ve looked at so far is a technical problem. Compared to organizational problems, technical problems are straightforward. Distributed systems are considered hard because real systems might drop something like 0.1% of messages, corrupt an even smaller percentage of messages, and see latencies in the microsecond to millisecond range. When I talk to higher-ups and compare what they think they’re saying to what my coworkers think they’re saying, I find that the rate of lost messages is well over 50%, every message gets corrupted, and latency can be months or years. When people imagine how long it should take to build something, they’re often imagining a team that works perfectly and spends 100% of its time coding. But that’s impossible to scale up. The question isn’t whether or not there will inefficiencies, but how much inefficiency. A company that could eliminate organizational inefficiency would be a larger innovation than any tech startup, ever. But when doing the math on how many employees a company “should” have, people usually assume that the company is an efficient organization.  
  This post happens to use search as an example because I ran across some people who claimed that Lucene was going to surpass Google’s capabilities any day now, but there’s nothing about this post that’s unique to search. If you talk to people in almost any field, you’ll hear stories about how people wildly underestimate the complexity of the problems in the field. The point here isn’t that it would be impossible for a small team to build something better than Google search. It’s entirely plausible that someone will have an innovation as great as PageRank, and that a small team could turn that into a viable company. But once that company is past the VC-funded hyper growth phase and wants to maximize its profits, it will end up with a multi-thousand person platforms org, just like Google’s, unless the company wants to leave hundreds of millions or billions of dollars a year on the table due to hardware and software inefficiency. And the company will want to handle languages like Thai, Arabic, Chinese, and Japanese, each of which is non-trivial. And the company will want to have relatively good security. And there are the hundreds of little features that users don’t even realize that are there, each of which provides a noticeable increase in revenue. And then there’s sales, which most engineers don’t even think of, not to mention research (which, almost by definition, involves a lot of bets that don’t pan out).  
  It’s not that all of those things are necessary to run a service at all; it’s that almost every large service is leaving money on the table if they don’t seriously address those things. This reminds me of a common fallacy we see in unreliable systems, where people build the happy path with the idea that the happy path is the “real” work, and that error handling can be tacked on later.    For reliable systems, error handling more work than the happy path. The same thing is true for large services – all of this stuff that people don’t think of as “real” work is more work than the core service.  
  I’m experimenting with writing blog posts stream-of-consciousness, without much editing. Both this postand my last post were written that way.    Let me know what you thinkof these posts relative to my “normal” posts!
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侯桃 发表于 2016-10-3 19:49:34
刚看见一个妹子,很漂亮!
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苑杰越彬 发表于 2016-10-5 02:56:01
支持楼主,用户楼主,楼主英明呀!!!
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刘佳玉 发表于 2016-10-12 22:35:28
有钱,就是任性,没钱,认命!
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