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[其他] How iPhone sales correlate with Google search results (AAPL)

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Distance失落心 发表于 2016-10-2 19:59:48
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How iPhone sales correlate with Google search results (AAPL)-1 (colleagues,iPhone,interest,increase,contrast)
    Enric Fradera/Flickr (CC)   
  Google search trends can be used to predict growth in iPhone sales, and search volume for iPhone 7 suggests Apple is poised for a sales increase, according to two analysts at Longbow Research.
  Longbow's Shawn Harrison and Frank Carson rate AAPL a "buy" with a $140 price target, based in part on their tracking of Google search interest around the launches of new iPhones. Interest in iPhone 7 is "close" to that showed for iPhone 6 — Apple's biggest ever product launch — they say.
  That's a contrast to many of their colleagues, who for months have been predicting further declines in iPhone sales because iPhone 7 looked like an unexciting improvement on the existing product that many users might decide to skip until next year.
  Bernstein is calling for a 5% decline in units sold in the December quarter, and Credit Suisse thinks there may be a decline of up tp 7% for the year. Barclays recently removed Apple from its "top pick" list — where it had been for a year.
  But they might be wrong, according to the Longbow team:
  "Google search trends for the iPhone 7 remain well ahead of the iPhone 6s while tracking closer to the iPhone 6 launch. Google iPhone searches are correlated to iPhone shipments (R = 0.79) and predictive of future shipments (R2 = 0.63)."
  "... We reviewed the period 5 days preceding the new iPhone announcement event and the 11 days post. The iPhone 7 is off to a better start vs. the iPhone 6s and tracking closer to the iPhone 6, but the staying power of demand remains the unknown."
  Here is what that looks like in a chart. Not shown on the graph is Q4 2016, when iPhone 7 sales will be disclosed. Longbow's prediction is that the black line representing search will shoot skyward the way it did for iPhone 6, and sales for iPhone 7 will match:

How iPhone sales correlate with Google search results (AAPL)-2 (colleagues,iPhone,interest,increase,contrast)
   Longbow Research         
  iPhone 7 had much better search action than even the blockbuster iPhone 6, Longbow says:
  
       
  • iPhone 7 vs. iPhone 6s:   
  • 5 days leading up to the CY16 announcement, the iPhone 7 averaged 40 search results for every 10 of the iPhone 6s.   
  • On the day of the announcement, the iPhone 7 averaged 228 search results for every 10 of the iPhone 6s.   
  • 11 days post, the iPhone 7 averaged 36-167 search results for every 10 of the iPhone 6s.   
  • iPhone 7 vs. iPhone 6:   
  • 5 days leading up to the CY16 announcement date, the iPhone 7 averaged roughly 20 search results for every 10 of the iPhone 6.   
  • On the day of the announcement, the iPhone 7 averaged 114 search results for every 10 of the iPhone 6.   
  • 11 days post, the iPhone 7 averaged 21-100 search results for every 10 of the iPhone 6.  
   It's interesting stuff but not a slam-dunk case. A UBS analysis of search results recently showed the opposite: That searches indicated declining interest in iPhone 7 .
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大米 发表于 2016-10-2 21:56:44
楼主不哭,我帮你顶!
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liluo1991 发表于 2016-10-2 23:07:49
谁能明白谁的深爱,谁又能理解谁的离开...
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sheng2014 发表于 2016-10-4 03:44:01
所有的男人生来平等,结婚的除外。  
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姜丽萍 发表于 2016-10-4 05:42:34
有种帖子让我迷茫,有种回复让我欲罢不能
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金战 发表于 2016-10-4 06:26:41
我就路过,不说话。
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粉色美人鱼3 发表于 2016-11-4 23:16:41
我真的不愿意用脚趾头鄙视你。但是,是你逼我这么做的!
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侯姣姣 发表于 2016-11-10 19:36:55
我曾经跟一个人无数次的擦肩而过,衣服都擦破了,也没擦出火花。
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凄凉 发表于 2016-11-11 06:52:16
占位编辑
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半城烟沙 发表于 2016-11-13 08:14:11
爱妃,别急,洗完澡了我会翻牌子的.
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